Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

XDC Industries (Shenzhen) Limited (300615.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.49 - $0.70$0.59
Multi-Stage$0.80 - $0.87$0.83
Blended Fair Value$0.71
Current Price$13.79
Upside-94.84%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.49%-9.44%0.100.100.060.050.050.040.040.210.140.22
YoY Growth---0.94%74.71%17.06%0.12%30.51%-7.97%-80.00%49.96%-36.38%-20.19%
Dividend Yield--0.83%0.80%0.42%0.45%0.49%0.23%0.25%1.80%0.62%2.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.761.731.04
Cash Retained (M)2.132.132.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.76-1.73-1.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.640.401.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)191.71191.71191.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.060.060.07
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate-1.60%-0.60%0.40%
Fair Value$0.49$0.59$0.70
Upside / Downside-96.44%-95.70%-94.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13.8113.7313.6413.5613.4813.4013.80
Payout Ratio84.60%85.68%86.76%87.84%88.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.6811.7611.8411.9111.9912.0612.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate-1.60%-0.60%0.40%
Year 1 PV (M)10.5910.7010.80
Year 2 PV (M)9.599.799.99
Year 3 PV (M)8.698.969.23
Year 4 PV (M)7.878.208.53
Year 5 PV (M)7.137.507.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)108.55114.18120.04
Equity Value (M)152.43159.33166.49
Shares Outstanding (M)191.71191.71191.71
Fair Value$0.80$0.83$0.87
Upside / Downside-94.23%-93.97%-93.70%

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