Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Jinlei Technology Co., Ltd. (300443.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$173.42 - $204.32$191.48
Multi-Stage$121.82 - $133.71$127.65
Blended Fair Value$159.56
Current Price$29.99
Upside432.06%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS35.65%39.20%0.340.150.030.490.130.070.000.130.090.00
YoY Growth--123.93%489.32%-94.73%266.51%80.00%305,278.77%-99.98%46.47%1,910.82%-63.65%
Dividend Yield--1.61%0.69%0.06%1.46%0.44%0.55%0.00%0.91%0.33%0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)328.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)44.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)284.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)65.7541.1024.66
Cash Retained (M)284.06284.06284.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-65.75-41.10-24.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)218.30242.96259.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)320.01320.01320.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.680.760.81
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.680.760.81
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.820.900.95
WACC / Discount Rate1.57%1.57%1.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$173.42$191.48$204.32
Upside / Downside478.26%538.47%581.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)328.77350.14372.90397.14422.95450.44463.95
Payout Ratio13.60%28.88%44.16%59.44%74.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)44.71101.12164.67236.06316.03405.40429.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.57%1.57%1.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)98.6299.55100.49
Year 2 PV (M)156.63159.61162.62
Year 3 PV (M)218.97225.26231.66
Year 4 PV (M)285.91296.90308.21
Year 5 PV (M)357.69374.96392.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)37,865.1639,694.0641,592.96
Equity Value (M)38,982.9740,850.3542,788.84
Shares Outstanding (M)320.01320.01320.01
Fair Value$121.82$127.65$133.71
Upside / Downside306.20%325.65%345.85%

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