Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sichuan Goldstone Asia Pharmaceutical Inc. (300434.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - DistributionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.47 - $5.54$4.41
Multi-Stage$3.93 - $4.30$4.11
Blended Fair Value$4.26
Current Price$9.45
Upside-54.92%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.24%15.74%0.110.000.000.000.080.090.070.040.020.03
YoY Growth--6,000.19%555.46%-65.25%-98.94%-16.76%36.79%62.08%143.66%-35.66%0.80%
Dividend Yield--1.37%0.02%0.00%0.01%0.94%1.27%0.65%0.32%0.09%0.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)130.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)28.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)101.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.0816.309.78
Cash Retained (M)101.71101.71101.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.08-16.30-9.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)75.6385.4191.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)401.47401.47401.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.210.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.210.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.280.30
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate2.24%3.24%4.24%
Fair Value$3.47$4.41$5.54
Upside / Downside-63.28%-53.34%-41.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)130.40134.62138.98143.48148.12152.92157.51
Payout Ratio22.00%35.60%49.20%62.80%76.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)28.6947.9268.3890.10113.17137.63145.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate2.24%3.24%4.24%
Year 1 PV (M)43.1943.6144.03
Year 2 PV (M)55.5356.6257.72
Year 3 PV (M)65.9467.9069.89
Year 4 PV (M)74.6377.6080.65
Year 5 PV (M)81.8085.8890.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,256.311,318.971,384.10
Equity Value (M)1,577.411,650.571,726.51
Shares Outstanding (M)401.47401.47401.47
Fair Value$3.93$4.11$4.30
Upside / Downside-58.42%-56.49%-54.49%

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