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Definitive Analysis

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Guangdong Yizumi Precision Machinery Co.,Ltd. (300415.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$119.97 - $293.84$275.37
Multi-Stage$42.82 - $46.87$44.81
Blended Fair Value$160.09
Current Price$26.15
Upside512.19%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.87%26.93%0.480.440.570.190.160.170.230.130.110.13
YoY Growth--9.27%-22.09%205.59%13.12%-0.89%-28.22%82.13%20.04%-17.24%186.55%
Dividend Yield--2.13%2.20%2.76%1.36%0.82%2.33%2.88%0.81%0.89%1.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)691.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)263.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)428.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)138.3486.4751.88
Cash Retained (M)428.31428.31428.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-138.34-86.47-51.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)289.97341.85376.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)468.18468.18468.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.620.730.80
LTM Dividend per Share0.560.560.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.620.730.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.181.291.37
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$119.97$275.37$293.84
Upside / Downside358.80%953.03%1,023.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)691.72736.69784.57835.57889.88947.72976.15
Payout Ratio38.08%48.46%58.85%69.23%79.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)263.41357.03461.71578.48708.49852.95902.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)331.97335.12338.26
Year 2 PV (M)399.16406.77414.44
Year 3 PV (M)465.02478.37491.97
Year 4 PV (M)529.55549.91570.86
Year 5 PV (M)592.77621.40651.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,729.4618,585.8019,474.91
Equity Value (M)20,047.9220,977.3621,941.57
Shares Outstanding (M)468.18468.18468.18
Fair Value$42.82$44.81$46.87
Upside / Downside63.75%71.34%79.22%

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