Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Wolwo Bio-Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (300357.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.12 - $30.17$20.10
Multi-Stage$10.22 - $11.17$10.68
Blended Fair Value$15.39
Current Price$29.19
Upside-47.27%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.03%12.39%0.190.200.200.160.180.140.120.080.110.09
YoY Growth---7.74%0.36%25.62%-11.11%29.60%12.50%60.00%-28.57%16.67%60.00%
Dividend Yield--0.87%0.83%0.42%0.41%0.31%0.31%0.46%0.40%0.99%0.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)390.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)52.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)338.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)78.0948.8029.28
Cash Retained (M)338.00338.00338.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-78.09-48.80-29.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)259.92289.20308.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)523.58523.58523.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.500.550.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.500.550.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.600.650.69
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$14.12$20.10$30.17
Upside / Downside-51.63%-31.15%3.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)390.43415.81442.84471.63502.28534.93550.98
Payout Ratio13.43%28.74%44.06%59.37%74.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)52.43119.52195.10280.01375.13481.44509.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)107.67108.69109.71
Year 2 PV (M)158.35161.37164.41
Year 3 PV (M)204.74210.62216.61
Year 4 PV (M)247.11256.62266.39
Year 5 PV (M)285.71299.51313.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,347.094,557.054,775.06
Equity Value (M)5,350.685,593.865,846.02
Shares Outstanding (M)523.58523.58523.58
Fair Value$10.22$10.68$11.17
Upside / Downside-64.99%-63.40%-61.75%

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