Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Hoperun Software Co., Ltd. (300339.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.19 - $1.73$1.45
Multi-Stage$1.95 - $2.15$2.05
Blended Fair Value$1.75
Current Price$60.60
Upside-97.11%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-16.85%-7.27%0.040.040.050.060.070.090.100.090.070.04
YoY Growth---13.33%-17.03%-7.42%-22.34%-23.10%-8.82%11.31%33.20%88.73%-53.64%
Dividend Yield--0.07%0.18%0.20%0.28%0.82%0.97%0.72%0.77%0.48%0.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)129.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)107.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.8016.139.68
Cash Retained (M)107.07107.07107.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.80-16.13-9.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)81.2790.9597.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)786.21786.21786.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.130.140.15
WACC / Discount Rate8.79%8.79%8.79%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.19$1.45$1.73
Upside / Downside-98.03%-97.60%-97.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)129.00127.71126.44125.17123.92122.68126.36
Payout Ratio17.00%31.60%46.20%60.80%75.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21.9340.3658.4276.1193.44110.41116.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.79%8.79%8.79%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)36.7237.1037.47
Year 2 PV (M)48.3649.3650.36
Year 3 PV (M)57.3359.1160.92
Year 4 PV (M)64.0566.7069.44
Year 5 PV (M)68.8772.4576.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,258.811,324.361,392.61
Equity Value (M)1,534.151,609.081,686.98
Shares Outstanding (M)786.21786.21786.21
Fair Value$1.95$2.05$2.15
Upside / Downside-96.78%-96.62%-96.46%

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