Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Jiangsu Yunyi Electric Co.,Ltd. (300304.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.37 - $20.33$13.41
Multi-Stage$6.77 - $7.40$7.08
Blended Fair Value$10.25
Current Price$13.73
Upside-25.37%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.39%8.68%0.080.040.040.030.030.030.030.030.050.05
YoY Growth--119.78%-9.43%14.29%16.67%-0.70%-0.01%15.37%-50.00%13.41%33.33%
Dividend Yield--0.95%0.58%0.84%0.64%0.62%0.78%0.62%0.40%0.35%0.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)425.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)68.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)356.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)85.0153.1331.88
Cash Retained (M)356.21356.21356.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-85.01-53.13-31.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)271.20303.08324.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)873.90873.90873.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.350.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.350.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.390.430.45
WACC / Discount Rate9.88%9.88%9.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9.37$13.41$20.33
Upside / Downside-31.73%-2.32%48.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)425.06452.69482.11513.45546.82582.37599.84
Payout Ratio16.20%30.96%45.72%60.48%75.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)68.85140.14220.41310.53411.43524.13554.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.88%9.88%9.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)126.34127.54128.74
Year 2 PV (M)179.15182.56186.00
Year 3 PV (M)227.54234.07240.73
Year 4 PV (M)271.79282.24292.99
Year 5 PV (M)312.15327.23342.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,803.315,035.315,276.19
Equity Value (M)5,920.286,188.966,467.54
Shares Outstanding (M)873.90873.90873.90
Fair Value$6.77$7.08$7.40
Upside / Downside-50.66%-48.42%-46.10%

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