Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Jiangsu Pacific Precision Forging Co., Ltd. (300258.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.63 - $52.02$18.86
Multi-Stage$5.52 - $6.04$5.77
Blended Fair Value$12.32
Current Price$15.59
Upside-21.00%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.58%12.95%0.260.170.170.160.150.180.140.110.080.09
YoY Growth--54.45%-1.70%6.44%7.16%-16.79%29.48%31.95%30.46%-9.64%16.45%
Dividend Yield--1.90%1.62%1.58%1.53%1.34%1.78%1.05%0.70%0.48%0.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)135.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)54.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)81.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.1016.9410.16
Cash Retained (M)81.4581.4581.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.10-16.94-10.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)54.3564.5171.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)518.02518.02518.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.24
WACC / Discount Rate7.79%7.79%7.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9.63$18.86$52.02
Upside / Downside-38.23%20.96%233.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)135.49144.30153.68163.67174.31185.64191.20
Payout Ratio39.89%49.91%59.93%69.96%79.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)54.0572.0292.10114.49139.41167.07176.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.79%7.79%7.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)66.1966.8167.44
Year 2 PV (M)77.7979.2780.76
Year 3 PV (M)88.8691.4194.01
Year 4 PV (M)99.43103.26107.19
Year 5 PV (M)109.51114.80120.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,419.032,535.872,657.18
Equity Value (M)2,860.822,991.433,126.89
Shares Outstanding (M)518.02518.02518.02
Fair Value$5.52$5.77$6.04
Upside / Downside-64.58%-62.96%-61.28%

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