Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Beijing Enlight Media Co., Ltd. (300251.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: EntertainmentSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.87 - $10.60$8.60
Multi-Stage$13.78 - $15.17$14.46
Blended Fair Value$11.53
Current Price$19.37
Upside-40.47%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.41%14.98%0.070.050.200.010.060.070.230.050.050.06
YoY Growth--38.49%-74.82%1,898.40%-83.76%-9.80%-70.32%343.03%2.30%-12.18%234.80%
Dividend Yield--0.33%0.47%2.25%0.12%0.52%0.77%2.61%0.40%0.54%0.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,166.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)584.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,582.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)433.35270.85162.51
Cash Retained (M)1,582.021,582.021,582.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-433.35-270.85-162.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,148.671,311.181,419.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,924.882,924.882,924.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.390.450.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.390.450.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.590.650.69
WACC / Discount Rate6.90%6.90%6.90%
Growth Rate-1.59%-0.59%0.41%
Fair Value$6.87$8.60$10.60
Upside / Downside-64.54%-55.59%-45.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,166.772,154.052,141.402,128.832,116.332,103.902,167.02
Payout Ratio26.99%39.59%52.19%64.79%77.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)584.75852.781,117.641,379.371,637.981,893.512,004.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.90%6.90%6.90%
Growth Rate-1.59%-0.59%0.41%
Year 1 PV (M)789.69797.71805.74
Year 2 PV (M)958.38977.96997.73
Year 3 PV (M)1,095.311,129.031,163.45
Year 4 PV (M)1,204.431,254.141,305.36
Year 5 PV (M)1,289.311,356.161,425.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)34,967.5736,780.6238,668.10
Equity Value (M)40,304.6942,295.6244,366.14
Shares Outstanding (M)2,924.882,924.882,924.88
Fair Value$13.78$14.46$15.17
Upside / Downside-28.86%-25.35%-21.69%

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