Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Hithink RoyalFlush Information Network Co., Ltd. (300033.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$90.70 - $209.59$132.65
Multi-Stage$68.53 - $74.64$71.53
Blended Fair Value$102.09
Current Price$371.77
Upside-72.54%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS38.39%66.37%2.412.241.781.190.840.480.890.890.730.04
YoY Growth--7.65%25.74%50.00%41.18%77.08%-46.67%0.00%21.62%1,750.00%166.67%
Dividend Yield--0.85%1.65%0.87%1.24%0.71%0.44%0.81%1.72%1.16%0.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,378.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,666.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)711.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)475.70297.31178.39
Cash Retained (M)711.92711.92711.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-475.70-297.31-178.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)236.22414.61533.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)542.42542.42542.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.440.760.98
LTM Dividend per Share3.073.073.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.440.760.98
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.513.844.06
WACC / Discount Rate9.58%9.58%9.58%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$90.70$132.65$209.59
Upside / Downside-75.60%-64.32%-43.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,378.502,533.112,697.762,873.113,059.863,258.763,356.52
Payout Ratio70.07%74.05%78.04%82.03%86.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,666.581,875.892,105.362,356.742,631.902,932.883,104.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.58%9.58%9.58%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,695.811,711.881,727.96
Year 2 PV (M)1,720.551,753.321,786.40
Year 3 PV (M)1,741.091,791.071,842.00
Year 4 PV (M)1,757.721,825.321,894.85
Year 5 PV (M)1,770.701,856.221,945.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,485.8829,861.7631,290.30
Equity Value (M)37,171.7538,799.5840,486.52
Shares Outstanding (M)542.42542.42542.42
Fair Value$68.53$71.53$74.64
Upside / Downside-81.57%-80.76%-79.92%

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