Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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KCTech Co., Ltd. (281820.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20,942.16 - $31,053.25$25,772.05
Multi-Stage$37,776.19 - $41,599.64$39,650.35
Blended Fair Value$32,711.20
Current Price$26,450.00
Upside23.67%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-7.37%0.00%182.42253.36229.18229.18198.14267.49178.320.000.000.00
YoY Growth---28.00%10.55%0.00%15.67%-25.93%50.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.56%0.60%1.11%1.05%0.75%1.61%1.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)52,349.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,326.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)47,023.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10,469.996,543.753,926.25
Cash Retained (M)47,023.2347,023.2347,023.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-10,469.99-6,543.75-3,926.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)36,553.2440,479.4843,096.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)20.0220.0220.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share1,825.742,021.852,152.59
LTM Dividend per Share266.06266.06266.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share1,825.742,021.852,152.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend2,091.802,287.912,418.65
WACC / Discount Rate7.79%7.79%7.79%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$20,942.16$25,772.05$31,053.25
Upside / Downside-20.82%-2.56%17.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)52,349.9751,826.4751,308.2050,795.1250,287.1749,784.3051,277.83
Payout Ratio10.18%26.14%42.11%58.07%74.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,326.7413,547.5421,603.3929,496.7837,230.1344,805.8747,431.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.79%7.79%7.79%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)12,441.6512,568.6112,695.56
Year 2 PV (M)18,220.3718,594.1118,971.65
Year 3 PV (M)22,846.9123,553.4624,274.44
Year 4 PV (M)26,482.8727,580.4628,711.82
Year 5 PV (M)29,270.0230,794.1832,381.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)647,055.19680,748.86715,831.74
Equity Value (M)756,317.02793,839.68832,866.39
Shares Outstanding (M)20.0220.0220.02
Fair Value$37,776.19$39,650.35$41,599.64
Upside / Downside42.82%49.91%57.28%

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