Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Dawn Corp. (2303.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,403.53 - $5,097.17$3,412.00
Multi-Stage$1,731.19 - $1,892.12$1,810.19
Blended Fair Value$2,611.09
Current Price$2,451.00
Upside6.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202520242023202220212020
DPS20.73%0.00%20.0316.2214.5912.5110.417.810.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--23.53%11.16%16.60%20.22%33.23%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.82%0.80%0.75%0.68%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)391.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)361.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)78.3248.9529.37
Cash Retained (M)361.00361.00361.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-78.32-48.95-29.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)282.68312.05331.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3.063.063.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share92.50102.11108.52
LTM Dividend per Share10.0210.0210.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share92.50102.11108.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend102.52112.13118.54
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2,403.53$3,412.00$5,097.17
Upside / Downside-1.94%39.21%107.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)391.61417.07444.18473.05503.80536.54552.64
Payout Ratio7.82%24.25%40.69%57.13%73.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.61101.15180.73270.24370.61482.89511.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)91.0991.9692.82
Year 2 PV (M)146.58149.37152.19
Year 3 PV (M)197.37203.03208.81
Year 4 PV (M)243.76253.13262.77
Year 5 PV (M)286.02299.84314.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,325.514,534.434,751.35
Equity Value (M)5,290.325,531.755,782.11
Shares Outstanding (M)3.063.063.06
Fair Value$1,731.19$1,810.19$1,892.12
Upside / Downside-29.37%-26.14%-22.80%

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