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Definitive Analysis

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Morimatsu International Holdings Company Limited (2155.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$201.22 - $237.08$222.18
Multi-Stage$142.45 - $156.37$149.28
Blended Fair Value$185.73
Current Price$5.51
Upside3,270.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS115.22%0.00%0.090.000.000.020.010.000.120.010.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%75.17%613.58%-98.40%1,347.50%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.15%0.00%0.00%0.33%0.18%0.02%1.53%0.11%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,497.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)110.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,386.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)299.46187.17112.30
Cash Retained (M)1,386.511,386.511,386.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-299.46-187.17-112.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,087.051,199.351,274.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,256.051,256.051,256.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.870.951.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.870.951.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.951.041.10
WACC / Discount Rate1.39%1.39%1.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$201.22$222.18$237.08
Upside / Downside3,552.00%3,932.23%4,202.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,497.321,594.651,698.301,808.691,926.252,051.462,113.00
Payout Ratio7.40%23.92%40.44%56.96%73.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)110.81381.45686.801,030.231,415.411,846.311,954.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.39%1.39%1.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)372.68376.21379.74
Year 2 PV (M)655.59668.08680.68
Year 3 PV (M)960.81988.391,016.50
Year 4 PV (M)1,289.701,339.291,390.31
Year 5 PV (M)1,643.651,723.041,805.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)173,999.14182,403.37191,129.24
Equity Value (M)178,921.57187,498.39196,401.94
Shares Outstanding (M)1,256.051,256.051,256.05
Fair Value$142.45$149.28$156.37
Upside / Downside2,485.27%2,609.19%2,737.84%

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