Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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dormakaba Holding AG (0QMS.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Security & Protection ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$42.20 - $72.83$55.38
Multi-Stage$71.70 - $78.71$75.14
Blended Fair Value$65.26
Current Price$72.50
Upside-9.99%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-12.81%-2.19%0.790.941.141.231.031.571.471.391.195.69
YoY Growth---15.83%-17.26%-7.85%19.45%-34.29%6.91%6.14%16.27%-79.06%475.84%
Dividend Yield--1.09%2.00%2.83%2.97%1.64%3.05%2.02%2.00%1.43%8.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)140.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)73.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)66.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)28.0217.5110.51
Cash Retained (M)66.8066.8066.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-28.02-17.51-10.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)38.7849.2956.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)42.2742.2742.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.921.171.33
LTM Dividend per Share1.731.731.73
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.921.171.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.652.903.07
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate0.48%1.48%2.48%
Fair Value$42.20$55.38$72.83
Upside / Downside-41.80%-23.61%0.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)140.10142.17144.26146.39148.55150.74155.27
Payout Ratio52.32%59.86%67.39%74.93%82.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)73.3085.1097.22109.69122.50135.67143.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate0.48%1.48%2.48%
Year 1 PV (M)78.9079.6980.47
Year 2 PV (M)83.5885.2586.94
Year 3 PV (M)87.4390.0792.76
Year 4 PV (M)90.5494.2097.96
Year 5 PV (M)92.9797.69102.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,597.282,729.132,866.28
Equity Value (M)3,030.703,176.023,327.01
Shares Outstanding (M)42.2742.2742.27
Fair Value$71.70$75.14$78.71
Upside / Downside-1.10%3.64%8.57%

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