Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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IVU Traffic Technologies AG (0NCA.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$31.76 - $154.13$68.17
Multi-Stage$17.19 - $18.80$17.98
Blended Fair Value$43.08
Current Price$20.10
Upside114.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.38%0.00%0.260.240.220.200.160.120.100.000.000.05
YoY Growth--7.36%9.59%9.76%24.96%32.31%19.98%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.48%1.60%1.34%1.08%0.88%1.14%1.39%0.00%0.00%1.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)8.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.691.681.01
Cash Retained (M)8.578.578.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.69-1.68-1.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.896.897.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)17.3317.3317.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.400.44
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.400.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.620.680.72
WACC / Discount Rate7.56%7.56%7.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$31.76$68.17$154.13
Upside / Downside58.02%239.16%666.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13.4314.3015.2316.2217.2818.4018.95
Payout Ratio36.18%46.94%57.71%68.47%79.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.866.718.7911.1113.6916.5617.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.56%7.56%7.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)6.186.246.30
Year 2 PV (M)7.467.607.74
Year 3 PV (M)8.688.939.18
Year 4 PV (M)9.8510.2310.62
Year 5 PV (M)10.9711.5012.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)254.78267.09279.87
Equity Value (M)297.92311.59325.76
Shares Outstanding (M)17.3317.3317.33
Fair Value$17.19$17.98$18.80
Upside / Downside-14.47%-10.54%-6.48%

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