Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (0GDU.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electronic Gaming & MultimediaSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$377.46 - $1,199.26$1,123.88
Multi-Stage$165.39 - $180.66$172.89
Blended Fair Value$648.38
Current Price$175.00
Upside270.50%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.58%0.00%3.002.001.001.001.001.001.001.000.670.30
YoY Growth--50.01%100.04%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%49.25%123.33%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.64%1.06%0.39%0.56%0.51%0.63%0.67%0.80%1.17%0.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)637.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)528.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)109.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)127.5379.7147.83
Cash Retained (M)109.55109.55109.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-127.53-79.71-47.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)-17.9829.8561.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)105.75105.75105.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.170.280.58
LTM Dividend per Share4.994.994.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.170.280.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.825.285.58
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$377.46$1,123.88$1,199.26
Upside / Downside115.69%542.22%585.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)637.67679.12723.26770.27820.34873.66899.87
Payout Ratio82.82%84.26%85.69%87.13%88.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)528.12572.20619.77671.12726.53786.30832.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)530.49535.52540.55
Year 2 PV (M)532.73542.87553.12
Year 3 PV (M)534.82550.17565.81
Year 4 PV (M)536.77557.42578.65
Year 5 PV (M)538.59564.61591.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,815.7415,531.3516,274.34
Equity Value (M)17,489.1518,281.9419,104.09
Shares Outstanding (M)105.75105.75105.75
Fair Value$165.39$172.89$180.66
Upside / Downside-5.49%-1.21%3.23%

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