Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited (0306.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.85 - $4.29$3.53
Multi-Stage$4.94 - $5.44$5.19
Blended Fair Value$4.36
Current Price$1.58
Upside175.80%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-13.04%-32.16%0.020.000.000.000.000.040.190.230.230.41
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-79.23%-16.67%0.00%-42.86%-58.00%
Dividend Yield--1.27%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.52%4.48%5.37%5.74%9.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)159.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)149.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.8419.9011.94
Cash Retained (M)149.68149.68149.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.84-19.90-11.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)117.84129.78137.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)476.78476.78476.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.270.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.270.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.290.31
WACC / Discount Rate7.78%7.78%7.78%
Growth Rate-1.46%-0.46%0.54%
Fair Value$2.85$3.53$4.29
Upside / Downside80.29%123.36%171.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)159.22158.48157.74157.01156.28155.55160.22
Payout Ratio5.99%22.79%39.59%56.40%73.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.5436.1262.4688.55114.39140.00148.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.78%7.78%7.78%
Growth Rate-1.46%-0.46%0.54%
Year 1 PV (M)33.1833.5133.85
Year 2 PV (M)52.6953.7754.85
Year 3 PV (M)68.6270.7372.88
Year 4 PV (M)81.4384.7888.24
Year 5 PV (M)91.5396.27101.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,028.532,133.582,242.93
Equity Value (M)2,355.982,472.642,593.96
Shares Outstanding (M)476.78476.78476.78
Fair Value$4.94$5.19$5.44
Upside / Downside212.75%228.24%244.34%

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