Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shenzhen Zhaowei Machinery & Electronic Co., Ltd. (003021.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.92 - $9.85$8.36
Multi-Stage$10.66 - $11.70$11.17
Blended Fair Value$9.77
Current Price$137.15
Upside-92.88%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS49.98%0.00%0.400.130.140.450.000.050.110.260.020.00
YoY Growth--215.75%-13.02%-67.60%9,305.18%-90.93%-51.26%-58.59%1,193.28%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.31%0.28%0.26%1.58%0.01%0.11%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)247.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)68.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)178.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)49.4330.8918.54
Cash Retained (M)178.89178.89178.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-49.43-30.89-18.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)129.46148.00160.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)238.46238.46238.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.540.620.67
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.540.620.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.830.910.96
WACC / Discount Rate9.73%9.73%9.73%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.92$8.36$9.85
Upside / Downside-94.95%-93.90%-92.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)247.16244.69242.24239.82237.42235.04242.10
Payout Ratio27.62%40.10%52.57%65.05%77.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)68.2798.11127.35156.00184.06211.54223.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.73%9.73%9.73%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)88.5089.4190.31
Year 2 PV (M)103.63105.76107.91
Year 3 PV (M)114.51118.06121.67
Year 4 PV (M)121.88126.93132.14
Year 5 PV (M)126.37132.95139.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,986.442,089.872,197.58
Equity Value (M)2,541.342,662.982,789.40
Shares Outstanding (M)238.46238.46238.46
Fair Value$10.66$11.17$11.70
Upside / Downside-92.23%-91.86%-91.47%

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