Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Northking Information Technology Co., Ltd. (002987.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.51 - $66.89$22.63
Multi-Stage$7.62 - $8.33$7.97
Blended Fair Value$15.30
Current Price$21.03
Upside-27.24%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS40.61%0.00%0.090.040.030.040.000.020.010.010.040.00
YoY Growth--118.78%15.86%-14.36%3,448.39%-92.86%57.27%-19.67%-67.43%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.64%0.49%0.28%0.39%0.01%0.26%0.16%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)329.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)156.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)173.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)65.9041.1924.71
Cash Retained (M)173.38173.38173.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-65.90-41.19-24.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)107.48132.19148.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)866.85866.85866.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.150.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.150.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate8.07%8.07%8.07%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12.51$22.63$66.89
Upside / Downside-40.52%7.63%218.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)329.52350.94373.75398.05423.92451.48465.02
Payout Ratio47.38%55.91%64.43%72.95%81.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)156.14196.20240.81290.39345.40406.33430.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.07%8.07%8.07%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)179.86181.56183.26
Year 2 PV (M)202.35206.21210.10
Year 3 PV (M)223.68230.11236.65
Year 4 PV (M)243.89253.27262.91
Year 5 PV (M)263.01275.71288.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,496.855,762.356,038.01
Equity Value (M)6,609.636,909.197,219.83
Shares Outstanding (M)866.85866.85866.85
Fair Value$7.62$7.97$8.33
Upside / Downside-63.74%-62.10%-60.40%

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