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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen keanda electronic technology co.,ltd (002972.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.79 - $59.92$56.11
Multi-Stage$30.49 - $33.69$32.06
Blended Fair Value$44.09
Current Price$12.06
Upside265.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS45.15%0.00%0.450.430.360.140.110.070.060.160.090.00
YoY Growth--5.97%18.13%152.66%32.43%53.85%8.33%-60.00%81.82%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.08%4.23%2.80%1.16%0.88%0.39%0.55%1.37%0.75%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)79.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)42.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.869.915.95
Cash Retained (M)42.0742.0742.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.86-9.91-5.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)26.2132.1636.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)244.85244.85244.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.280.30
WACC / Discount Rate-1.02%-1.02%-1.02%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$25.79$56.11$59.92
Upside / Downside113.88%365.27%396.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)79.3078.5177.7276.9576.1875.4177.68
Payout Ratio46.95%55.56%64.17%72.78%81.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37.2343.6249.8756.0062.0067.8771.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.02%-1.02%-1.02%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)43.6244.0744.51
Year 2 PV (M)49.8850.9051.94
Year 3 PV (M)56.0157.7459.51
Year 4 PV (M)62.0164.5867.23
Year 5 PV (M)67.8971.4375.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,187.167,561.417,951.09
Equity Value (M)7,466.577,850.138,249.39
Shares Outstanding (M)244.85244.85244.85
Fair Value$30.49$32.06$33.69
Upside / Downside152.85%165.84%179.36%

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