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Definitive Analysis

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Xinjiang Communications Construction Group Co., Ltd. (002941.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Infrastructure OperationsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$101.72 - $170.75$160.01
Multi-Stage$27.63 - $30.24$28.91
Blended Fair Value$94.46
Current Price$16.12
Upside485.99%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS29.86%12.89%0.500.420.400.330.380.140.210.210.170.08
YoY Growth--20.97%4.88%21.24%-13.56%177.68%-35.07%-0.40%27.05%119.86%-49.58%
Dividend Yield--4.67%3.50%2.66%2.15%2.34%0.90%0.57%2.04%0.00%0.73%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)587.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)257.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)329.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)117.5273.4544.07
Cash Retained (M)329.97329.97329.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-117.52-73.45-44.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)212.45256.52285.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)684.42684.42684.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.370.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.380.380.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.370.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.690.750.79
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$101.72$160.01$170.75
Upside / Downside531.02%892.65%959.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)587.62625.81666.49709.81755.95805.08829.24
Payout Ratio43.85%53.08%62.31%71.54%80.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)257.65332.16415.27507.79610.57724.58767.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)309.80312.73315.67
Year 2 PV (M)361.24368.12375.06
Year 3 PV (M)411.97423.80435.85
Year 4 PV (M)462.01479.78498.05
Year 5 PV (M)511.36536.05561.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,851.3117,665.2318,510.31
Equity Value (M)18,907.6719,785.7120,696.63
Shares Outstanding (M)684.42684.42684.42
Fair Value$27.63$28.91$30.24
Upside / Downside71.38%79.34%87.59%

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