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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Mingdiao Decoration Co., Ltd. (002830.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$47.04 - $55.46$51.96
Multi-Stage$31.44 - $34.59$32.99
Blended Fair Value$42.47
Current Price$16.98
Upside150.13%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.25%7.77%0.230.110.140.110.120.150.110.120.100.11
YoY Growth--98.21%-20.00%25.00%-7.69%-18.75%33.33%-3.88%14.81%-3.33%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.82%0.96%1.11%0.89%1.04%1.22%0.64%0.58%0.32%0.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)40.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.105.063.04
Cash Retained (M)7.577.577.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.10-5.06-3.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.532.514.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)140.44140.44140.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.27
WACC / Discount Rate0.13%0.13%0.13%
Growth Rate1.99%2.99%3.99%
Fair Value$47.04$51.96$55.46
Upside / Downside177.05%206.00%226.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)40.4941.7042.9544.2345.5646.9248.33
Payout Ratio81.30%83.04%84.78%86.52%88.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.9234.6336.4138.2740.2142.2344.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate0.13%0.13%0.13%
Growth Rate1.99%2.99%3.99%
Year 1 PV (M)34.2534.5834.92
Year 2 PV (M)35.6236.3237.03
Year 3 PV (M)37.0238.1239.24
Year 4 PV (M)38.4740.0041.58
Year 5 PV (M)39.9641.9644.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,230.264,441.744,661.60
Equity Value (M)4,415.574,632.724,858.40
Shares Outstanding (M)140.44140.44140.44
Fair Value$31.44$32.99$34.59
Upside / Downside85.16%94.26%103.73%

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