Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai NAR Industrial Co., Ltd (002825.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.42 - $30.89$17.56
Multi-Stage$7.80 - $8.52$8.15
Blended Fair Value$12.86
Current Price$9.73
Upside32.14%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS29.94%8.60%0.150.220.130.210.090.040.030.060.000.06
YoY Growth---31.54%70.35%-36.40%138.27%109.63%39.72%-50.05%0.00%-100.00%-17.38%
Dividend Yield--1.82%2.98%1.36%2.22%1.15%0.56%0.34%0.68%0.00%1.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)162.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)44.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)118.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)32.5720.3512.21
Cash Retained (M)118.56118.56118.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-32.57-20.35-12.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)85.9998.20106.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)339.77339.77339.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.290.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.290.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.380.420.44
WACC / Discount Rate9.04%9.04%9.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11.42$17.56$30.89
Upside / Downside17.34%80.51%217.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)162.84173.42184.70196.70209.49223.10229.80
Payout Ratio27.19%39.75%52.32%64.88%77.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)44.2868.9496.63127.61162.22200.79212.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.04%9.04%9.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)62.6363.2363.82
Year 2 PV (M)79.7581.2682.80
Year 3 PV (M)95.6898.43101.22
Year 4 PV (M)110.49114.74119.11
Year 5 PV (M)124.25130.25136.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,176.582,281.712,390.86
Equity Value (M)2,649.372,769.612,894.29
Shares Outstanding (M)339.77339.77339.77
Fair Value$7.80$8.15$8.52
Upside / Downside-19.86%-16.22%-12.45%

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