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Definitive Analysis

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Guangdong Huafeng New Energy Technology Co.,Ltd. (002806.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.00 - $65.88$61.74
Multi-Stage$9.49 - $10.39$9.93
Blended Fair Value$35.83
Current Price$11.75
Upside204.98%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.78%2.84%0.070.050.000.050.060.070.050.040.010.04
YoY Growth--45.21%2,454.95%-96.17%-23.06%-4.79%31.69%37.11%538.42%-86.40%-18.87%
Dividend Yield--0.63%0.50%0.02%0.44%0.77%0.58%0.25%0.21%0.02%0.84%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)70.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)56.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.068.795.27
Cash Retained (M)56.9456.9456.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.06-8.79-5.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)42.8848.1551.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)212.23212.23212.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.230.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.230.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.290.31
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$27.00$61.74$65.88
Upside / Downside129.82%425.43%460.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)70.3074.8779.7484.9290.4496.3299.21
Payout Ratio19.01%33.20%47.40%61.60%75.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.3624.8637.8052.3168.5686.6991.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)23.1223.3423.55
Year 2 PV (M)32.6833.3033.93
Year 3 PV (M)42.0643.2644.49
Year 4 PV (M)51.2553.2255.25
Year 5 PV (M)60.2663.1766.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,804.321,891.461,981.95
Equity Value (M)2,013.672,107.752,205.37
Shares Outstanding (M)212.23212.23212.23
Fair Value$9.49$9.93$10.39
Upside / Downside-19.25%-15.48%-11.56%

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