Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Wuxi Honghui New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. (002802.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.25 - $1.71$1.48
Multi-Stage$2.25 - $2.47$2.36
Blended Fair Value$1.92
Current Price$12.81
Upside-85.01%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-9.02%44.04%0.360.460.230.290.460.580.210.090.090.01
YoY Growth---21.88%96.29%-18.71%-37.13%-20.48%180.56%133.56%-5.35%1,055.68%-13.94%
Dividend Yield--2.51%4.70%2.02%2.05%3.27%5.32%1.38%0.58%0.26%0.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)45.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)24.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.155.723.43
Cash Retained (M)24.3524.3524.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.15-5.72-3.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.2018.6320.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)184.09184.09184.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate9.76%9.76%9.76%
Growth Rate-5.27%-4.27%-3.27%
Fair Value$1.25$1.48$1.71
Upside / Downside-90.22%-88.42%-86.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)45.7743.8141.9440.1538.4336.7937.89
Payout Ratio46.80%55.44%64.08%72.72%81.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21.4224.2926.8729.1931.2733.1135.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.76%9.76%9.76%
Growth Rate-5.27%-4.27%-3.27%
Year 1 PV (M)21.9022.1322.36
Year 2 PV (M)21.8422.3022.77
Year 3 PV (M)21.3922.0822.77
Year 4 PV (M)20.6521.5422.45
Year 5 PV (M)19.7220.7821.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)308.62325.25342.60
Equity Value (M)414.12434.08454.85
Shares Outstanding (M)184.09184.09184.09
Fair Value$2.25$2.36$2.47
Upside / Downside-82.44%-81.59%-80.71%

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