Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Qingdao Gon Technology Co., Ltd. (002768.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$404.25 - $625.23$585.93
Multi-Stage$101.67 - $111.38$106.44
Blended Fair Value$346.18
Current Price$49.16
Upside604.20%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.98%41.32%0.690.760.660.530.250.260.230.180.080.01
YoY Growth---8.19%14.08%24.51%112.65%-2.62%12.62%28.23%114.59%484.84%-35.06%
Dividend Yield--2.83%3.63%2.40%2.37%0.91%0.58%0.82%0.69%0.34%0.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)833.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)184.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)648.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)166.66104.1662.50
Cash Retained (M)648.51648.51648.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-166.66-104.16-62.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)481.85544.35586.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)265.05265.05265.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.822.052.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.700.700.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.822.052.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.522.752.91
WACC / Discount Rate6.16%6.16%6.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$404.25$585.93$625.23
Upside / Downside722.31%1,091.89%1,171.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)833.28887.45945.131,006.571,071.991,141.671,175.92
Payout Ratio22.17%35.74%49.30%62.87%76.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)184.78317.17465.99632.83819.381,027.501,087.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.16%6.16%6.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)295.97298.78301.58
Year 2 PV (M)405.78413.51421.31
Year 3 PV (M)514.23528.99544.03
Year 4 PV (M)621.31645.21669.78
Year 5 PV (M)727.06762.17798.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,384.5825,562.3626,785.22
Equity Value (M)26,948.9328,211.0229,520.56
Shares Outstanding (M)265.05265.05265.05
Fair Value$101.67$106.44$111.38
Upside / Downside106.82%116.51%126.56%

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