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Definitive Analysis

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Shenyang Cuihua Gold and Silver Jewelry Co., Ltd. (002731.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Luxury GoodsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$90.06 - $214.01$200.55
Multi-Stage$31.20 - $34.16$32.65
Blended Fair Value$116.60
Current Price$12.44
Upside837.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.39%10.17%0.430.290.250.270.270.360.330.270.250.23
YoY Growth--47.21%15.55%-7.09%0.14%-25.36%9.19%22.09%8.15%7.78%43.55%
Dividend Yield--4.32%2.66%1.75%1.82%4.10%5.29%2.30%2.97%1.56%1.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)273.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)68.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)205.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)54.7734.2320.54
Cash Retained (M)205.76205.76205.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-54.77-34.23-20.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)150.99171.53185.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)254.48254.48254.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.590.670.73
LTM Dividend per Share0.270.270.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.590.670.73
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.860.941.00
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$90.06$200.55$214.01
Upside / Downside623.98%1,512.17%1,620.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)273.84291.64310.60330.79352.29375.19386.44
Payout Ratio24.86%37.89%50.92%63.94%76.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)68.08110.50158.15211.52271.17337.67357.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)102.77103.75104.72
Year 2 PV (M)136.80139.41142.04
Year 3 PV (M)170.18175.07180.04
Year 4 PV (M)202.91210.72218.74
Year 5 PV (M)235.01246.36258.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,091.087,433.587,789.19
Equity Value (M)7,938.768,308.888,692.89
Shares Outstanding (M)254.48254.48254.48
Fair Value$31.20$32.65$34.16
Upside / Downside150.77%162.46%174.59%

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