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ZheJiang Haers Vacuum Containers Co.,Ltd. (002615.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$36.91 - $71.04$66.57
Multi-Stage$11.37 - $12.43$11.89
Blended Fair Value$39.23
Current Price$7.92
Upside395.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.86%8.21%0.140.240.170.030.120.130.230.160.040.10
YoY Growth---39.64%41.18%377.94%-70.92%-7.41%-43.48%44.02%346.73%-65.96%62.17%
Dividend Yield--1.81%3.15%2.24%0.65%3.02%2.67%3.33%2.24%0.32%0.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)161.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)128.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)33.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)32.3520.2212.13
Cash Retained (M)33.0833.0833.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-32.35-20.22-12.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.7412.8720.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)452.81452.81452.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.030.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.030.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.310.33
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$36.91$66.57$71.04
Upside / Downside366.02%740.54%796.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)161.74172.25183.44195.37208.07221.59228.24
Payout Ratio79.55%81.64%83.73%85.82%87.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)128.65140.62153.59167.66182.91199.43211.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)131.02132.26133.50
Year 2 PV (M)133.34135.88138.45
Year 3 PV (M)135.62139.52143.48
Year 4 PV (M)137.86143.16148.62
Year 5 PV (M)140.06146.82153.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,470.134,686.044,910.21
Equity Value (M)5,148.045,383.695,628.11
Shares Outstanding (M)452.81452.81452.81
Fair Value$11.37$11.89$12.43
Upside / Downside43.55%50.12%56.94%

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