Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Shenzhen KSTAR Science and Technology Co., Ltd. (002518.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.99 - $38.90$24.77
Multi-Stage$12.23 - $13.35$12.78
Blended Fair Value$18.77
Current Price$41.29
Upside-54.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.45%28.93%0.450.350.250.200.200.200.200.160.130.07
YoY Growth--29.20%37.67%25.46%-0.93%1.10%0.98%28.97%20.80%71.48%110.50%
Dividend Yield--1.77%1.41%0.54%1.09%1.57%1.74%1.51%0.95%0.86%0.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)483.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)134.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)348.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)96.6360.4036.24
Cash Retained (M)348.30348.30348.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-96.63-60.40-36.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)251.67287.91312.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)582.76582.76582.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.430.490.54
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.430.490.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.660.730.77
WACC / Discount Rate9.62%9.62%9.62%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$16.99$24.77$38.90
Upside / Downside-58.86%-40.01%-5.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)483.17514.58548.02583.65621.58661.99681.85
Payout Ratio27.91%40.33%52.75%65.17%77.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)134.87207.53289.07380.33482.24595.79630.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.62%9.62%9.62%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)187.54189.32191.10
Year 2 PV (M)236.07240.56245.10
Year 3 PV (M)280.68288.74296.95
Year 4 PV (M)321.61333.97346.70
Year 5 PV (M)359.06376.40394.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,742.276,019.626,307.59
Equity Value (M)7,127.227,448.627,781.84
Shares Outstanding (M)582.76582.76582.76
Fair Value$12.23$12.78$13.35
Upside / Downside-70.38%-69.04%-67.66%

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