Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Tianjin Motor Dies Co.,Ltd. (002510.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.80 - $1.44$1.07
Multi-Stage$1.00 - $1.09$1.04
Blended Fair Value$1.06
Current Price$7.40
Upside-85.72%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.48%4.28%0.070.040.020.030.070.110.080.050.060.06
YoY Growth--108.34%71.91%-22.75%-63.49%-32.90%43.59%41.80%-6.10%3.44%13.50%
Dividend Yield--1.39%0.80%0.54%0.72%1.84%2.20%1.52%0.92%0.94%0.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)56.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)35.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)21.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.387.114.27
Cash Retained (M)21.4021.4021.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.38-7.11-4.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)10.0214.2917.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)999.55999.55999.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.050.050.05
WACC / Discount Rate8.09%8.09%8.09%
Growth Rate2.28%3.28%4.28%
Fair Value$0.80$1.07$1.44
Upside / Downside-89.16%-85.54%-80.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)56.9258.7960.7262.7164.7766.9068.91
Payout Ratio62.40%67.92%73.44%78.96%84.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)35.5239.9344.5949.5254.7260.2163.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.09%8.09%8.09%
Growth Rate2.28%3.28%4.28%
Year 1 PV (M)36.5836.9437.30
Year 2 PV (M)37.4338.1638.91
Year 3 PV (M)38.0839.2140.36
Year 4 PV (M)38.5540.0841.66
Year 5 PV (M)38.8640.8042.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)807.78848.04889.90
Equity Value (M)997.281,043.231,090.93
Shares Outstanding (M)999.55999.55999.55
Fair Value$1.00$1.04$1.09
Upside / Downside-86.52%-85.90%-85.25%

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