Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Zhejiang Yatai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (002370.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.90 - $3.03$2.41
Multi-Stage$5.02 - $5.54$5.27
Blended Fair Value$3.84
Current Price$5.67
Upside-32.24%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-15.00%11.30%0.020.020.020.020.020.040.070.040.030.03
YoY Growth---27.86%18.83%4.06%-11.11%-44.05%-50.00%100.00%31.49%0.00%400.00%
Dividend Yield--0.49%0.63%0.41%0.27%0.50%0.75%0.40%0.19%0.18%0.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)134.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)97.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.9816.8610.12
Cash Retained (M)97.5297.5297.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.98-16.86-10.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)70.5480.6687.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)727.51727.51727.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate5.66%5.66%5.66%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.90$2.41$3.03
Upside / Downside-66.55%-57.49%-46.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)134.89133.55132.21130.89129.58128.28132.13
Payout Ratio27.70%40.16%52.62%65.08%77.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37.3753.6469.5785.18100.48115.45122.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.66%5.66%5.66%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)50.2550.7651.27
Year 2 PV (M)61.0662.3163.58
Year 3 PV (M)70.0472.2174.42
Year 4 PV (M)77.4080.6083.91
Year 5 PV (M)83.3287.6592.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,310.763,483.163,662.67
Equity Value (M)3,652.833,836.704,028.02
Shares Outstanding (M)727.51727.51727.51
Fair Value$5.02$5.27$5.54
Upside / Downside-11.45%-6.99%-2.35%

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