Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Focus Technology Co., Ltd. (002315.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35.24 - $86.42$52.57
Multi-Stage$25.00 - $27.29$26.12
Blended Fair Value$39.34
Current Price$48.35
Upside-18.63%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.12%15.38%1.550.880.770.480.560.370.370.370.370.30
YoY Growth--75.30%14.09%60.77%-14.22%51.55%-1.16%0.91%0.26%25.00%-20.00%
Dividend Yield--3.60%2.47%3.31%3.14%2.34%2.48%3.07%2.26%1.63%1.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)509.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)174.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)335.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)101.9663.7238.23
Cash Retained (M)335.31335.31335.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-101.96-63.72-38.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)233.35271.58297.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)317.16317.16317.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.740.860.94
LTM Dividend per Share0.550.550.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.740.860.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.291.411.49
WACC / Discount Rate9.35%9.35%9.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$35.24$52.57$86.42
Upside / Downside-27.11%8.72%78.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)509.79542.92578.21615.80655.82698.45719.41
Payout Ratio34.23%45.38%56.54%67.69%78.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)174.48246.38326.90416.84517.09628.61665.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.35%9.35%9.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)223.20225.32227.43
Year 2 PV (M)268.28273.39278.54
Year 3 PV (M)309.90318.80327.86
Year 4 PV (M)348.26361.66375.43
Year 5 PV (M)383.54402.07421.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,394.636,703.507,024.18
Equity Value (M)7,927.828,284.728,654.76
Shares Outstanding (M)317.16317.16317.16
Fair Value$25.00$26.12$27.29
Upside / Downside-48.30%-45.97%-43.56%

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