Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Baolingbao Biology Co.,Ltd. (002286.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.78 - $35.92$17.58
Multi-Stage$7.01 - $7.66$7.33
Blended Fair Value$12.46
Current Price$9.63
Upside29.37%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.53%15.62%0.150.140.140.110.070.120.170.100.080.05
YoY Growth--11.17%-5.25%34.84%60.20%-42.49%-30.96%66.57%31.95%47.42%45.83%
Dividend Yield--1.96%2.17%1.60%0.89%0.62%1.45%2.33%0.91%0.52%0.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)144.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)44.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)99.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)28.8218.0110.81
Cash Retained (M)99.8899.8899.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-28.82-18.01-10.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)71.0781.8789.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)364.73364.73364.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate8.59%8.59%8.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10.78$17.58$35.92
Upside / Downside11.92%82.60%273.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)144.09153.46163.43174.05185.37197.42203.34
Payout Ratio30.68%42.54%54.41%66.27%78.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)44.2165.2988.92115.35144.84177.67188.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.59%8.59%8.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)59.5560.1260.68
Year 2 PV (M)73.9975.4076.82
Year 3 PV (M)87.5690.0792.63
Year 4 PV (M)100.29104.15108.12
Year 5 PV (M)112.23117.65123.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,124.022,226.612,333.13
Equity Value (M)2,557.662,674.012,794.67
Shares Outstanding (M)364.73364.73364.73
Fair Value$7.01$7.33$7.66
Upside / Downside-27.18%-23.87%-20.43%

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