Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Holitech Technology Co., Ltd. (002217.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.43 - $1.88$1.67
Multi-Stage$2.59 - $2.87$2.72
Blended Fair Value$2.19
Current Price$3.32
Upside-33.89%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-36.04%2.66%0.010.030.050.070.080.060.050.040.020.02
YoY Growth---76.70%-45.14%-29.07%-19.75%47.20%2.73%44.96%122.49%-4.18%282.50%
Dividend Yield--0.27%1.33%1.51%2.02%2.47%1.01%0.76%0.40%0.18%0.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,766.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)83.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,683.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)553.39345.87207.52
Cash Retained (M)2,683.772,683.772,683.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-553.39-345.87-207.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,130.372,337.902,476.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,040.107,040.107,040.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.330.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.330.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate9.79%9.79%9.79%
Growth Rate-10.00%-9.00%-8.00%
Fair Value$1.43$1.67$1.88
Upside / Downside-56.92%-49.82%-43.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,766.962,517.992,291.422,085.241,897.611,726.861,778.66
Payout Ratio3.01%20.41%37.80%55.20%72.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)83.20513.81866.251,151.111,377.691,554.171,645.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.79%9.79%9.79%
Growth Rate-10.00%-9.00%-8.00%
Year 1 PV (M)462.86468.00473.14
Year 2 PV (M)702.98718.68734.57
Year 3 PV (M)841.52869.88898.87
Year 4 PV (M)907.29948.29990.66
Year 5 PV (M)922.03974.401,029.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,380.5315,197.3916,050.94
Equity Value (M)18,217.2019,176.6420,177.32
Shares Outstanding (M)7,040.107,040.107,040.10
Fair Value$2.59$2.72$2.87
Upside / Downside-22.06%-17.95%-13.67%

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