Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Anhui Truchum Advanced Materials and Technology Co., Ltd. (002171.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.43 - $21.40$12.72
Multi-Stage$5.98 - $6.52$6.25
Blended Fair Value$9.48
Current Price$9.67
Upside-1.94%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS45.86%25.90%0.310.220.290.160.140.050.100.090.020.04
YoY Growth--37.70%-24.40%83.59%17.13%194.91%-52.86%15.22%316.85%-44.60%20.85%
Dividend Yield--3.50%2.71%3.94%1.72%1.93%0.62%1.44%1.26%0.26%0.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)568.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)242.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)326.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)113.7671.1042.66
Cash Retained (M)326.62326.62326.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-113.76-71.10-42.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)212.86255.52283.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,524.141,524.141,524.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.170.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.170.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8.43$12.72$21.40
Upside / Downside-12.77%31.53%121.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)568.80605.78645.15687.09731.75779.31802.69
Payout Ratio42.58%52.06%61.55%71.03%80.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)242.18315.38397.07488.04589.17701.38742.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)286.01288.72291.43
Year 2 PV (M)326.55332.77339.05
Year 3 PV (M)363.99374.44385.09
Year 4 PV (M)398.49413.81429.58
Year 5 PV (M)430.20450.98472.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,305.057,657.898,024.23
Equity Value (M)9,110.299,518.619,941.93
Shares Outstanding (M)1,524.141,524.141,524.14
Fair Value$5.98$6.25$6.52
Upside / Downside-38.19%-35.42%-32.54%

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