Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Guangdong Hongtu Technology (holdings) Co.,Ltd. (002101.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.32 - $15.54$11.27
Multi-Stage$7.24 - $7.91$7.57
Blended Fair Value$9.42
Current Price$13.54
Upside-30.43%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.29%15.07%0.360.050.280.160.080.340.200.200.040.07
YoY Growth--618.75%-81.69%70.97%102.81%-76.65%67.47%-0.18%374.23%-39.86%-19.88%
Dividend Yield--2.79%0.37%1.37%1.25%1.18%4.57%2.14%1.76%0.29%0.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)358.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)60.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)298.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)71.6244.7626.86
Cash Retained (M)298.02298.02298.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-71.62-44.76-26.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)226.40253.26271.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)662.72662.72662.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.380.41
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.380.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.430.470.50
WACC / Discount Rate9.82%9.82%9.82%
Growth Rate4.40%5.40%6.40%
Fair Value$8.32$11.27$15.54
Upside / Downside-38.53%-16.77%14.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)358.11377.43397.80419.28441.90465.76479.73
Payout Ratio16.78%31.42%46.07%60.71%75.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)60.08118.60183.26254.55333.00419.18443.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.82%9.82%9.82%
Growth Rate4.40%5.40%6.40%
Year 1 PV (M)106.97108.00109.02
Year 2 PV (M)149.08151.95154.85
Year 3 PV (M)186.77192.19197.71
Year 4 PV (M)220.38228.95237.76
Year 5 PV (M)250.21262.43275.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,884.314,073.944,270.91
Equity Value (M)4,797.735,017.455,245.37
Shares Outstanding (M)662.72662.72662.72
Fair Value$7.24$7.57$7.91
Upside / Downside-46.53%-44.08%-41.54%

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