Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shengda Resources Co.,Ltd. (000603.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.48 - $11.74$9.43
Multi-Stage$10.05 - $11.02$10.52
Blended Fair Value$9.98
Current Price$26.44
Upside-62.26%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.86%58.54%0.180.090.100.130.190.160.080.510.020.00
YoY Growth--110.95%-12.57%-24.61%-30.98%19.96%107.11%-85.12%3,295.61%469.71%46.14%
Dividend Yield--1.16%0.66%0.58%0.99%1.46%1.41%0.68%4.51%0.10%0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)513.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)123.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)390.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)102.6964.1838.51
Cash Retained (M)390.34390.34390.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-102.69-64.18-38.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)287.64326.15351.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)690.16690.16690.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.420.470.51
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.420.470.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.600.650.69
WACC / Discount Rate8.88%8.88%8.88%
Growth Rate0.86%1.86%2.86%
Fair Value$7.48$9.43$11.74
Upside / Downside-71.72%-64.32%-55.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)513.47523.00532.71542.60552.67562.92579.81
Payout Ratio23.98%37.18%50.39%63.59%76.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)123.13194.48268.42345.05424.43506.63536.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.88%8.88%8.88%
Growth Rate0.86%1.86%2.86%
Year 1 PV (M)176.86178.61180.36
Year 2 PV (M)221.99226.41230.88
Year 3 PV (M)259.50267.29275.25
Year 4 PV (M)290.27301.96313.99
Year 5 PV (M)315.10331.04347.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,669.335,956.026,254.19
Equity Value (M)6,933.057,261.337,602.28
Shares Outstanding (M)690.16690.16690.16
Fair Value$10.05$10.52$11.02
Upside / Downside-62.01%-60.21%-58.34%

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