Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Changchai Company, Limited (000570.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.23 - $0.35$0.28
Multi-Stage$0.28 - $0.31$0.30
Blended Fair Value$0.29
Current Price$5.57
Upside-94.78%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.78%11.88%0.050.010.030.000.000.030.030.030.020.02
YoY Growth--360.97%-61.50%994.40%-47.18%-82.99%-1.64%6.28%32.56%22.16%4.01%
Dividend Yield--0.86%0.19%0.51%0.05%0.08%0.63%0.48%0.50%0.23%0.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)16.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)9.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.322.081.25
Cash Retained (M)9.569.569.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.32-2.08-1.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)6.247.488.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)705.43705.43705.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.020.020.02
WACC / Discount Rate9.83%9.83%9.83%
Growth Rate1.38%2.38%3.38%
Fair Value$0.23$0.28$0.35
Upside / Downside-95.94%-94.92%-93.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)16.6217.0217.4217.8418.2618.7019.26
Payout Ratio42.48%51.98%61.49%70.99%80.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7.068.8510.7112.6614.7016.8317.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.83%9.83%9.83%
Growth Rate1.38%2.38%3.38%
Year 1 PV (M)7.978.058.13
Year 2 PV (M)8.718.889.05
Year 3 PV (M)9.289.569.84
Year 4 PV (M)9.7110.1010.50
Year 5 PV (M)10.0210.5311.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)155.24163.05171.17
Equity Value (M)200.94210.17219.75
Shares Outstanding (M)705.43705.43705.43
Fair Value$0.28$0.30$0.31
Upside / Downside-94.89%-94.65%-94.41%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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