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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Kingkey Smart Agriculture Times Co.,Ltd (000048.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$81.43 - $155.23$145.48
Multi-Stage$24.59 - $26.90$25.72
Blended Fair Value$85.60
Current Price$16.26
Upside426.44%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS134.75%40.74%0.571.191.411.310.580.010.100.070.010.02
YoY Growth---52.04%-15.96%7.65%126.59%7,152.60%-91.86%41.33%481.18%-22.69%-17.30%
Dividend Yield--3.28%6.80%6.11%5.91%2.86%0.04%0.64%0.39%0.05%0.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)409.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)241.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)168.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)81.9751.2330.74
Cash Retained (M)168.14168.14168.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-81.97-51.23-30.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)86.16116.90137.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)525.08525.08525.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.220.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.460.460.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.220.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.620.680.72
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$81.43$145.48$155.23
Upside / Downside400.81%794.69%854.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)409.86436.50464.87495.09527.27561.54578.39
Payout Ratio58.98%65.18%71.39%77.59%83.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)241.72284.52331.85384.14441.83505.39535.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)265.12267.63270.15
Year 2 PV (M)288.15293.63299.17
Year 3 PV (M)310.81319.73328.82
Year 4 PV (M)333.11345.92359.09
Year 5 PV (M)355.05372.20390.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,358.6311,907.2512,476.88
Equity Value (M)12,910.8513,506.3614,124.11
Shares Outstanding (M)525.08525.08525.08
Fair Value$24.59$25.72$26.90
Upside / Downside51.22%58.19%65.43%

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