Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Tellus Holding Co., Ltd. (000025.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - DealershipsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.67 - $18.65$11.41
Multi-Stage$5.43 - $5.93$5.68
Blended Fair Value$8.55
Current Price$17.54
Upside-51.28%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.31%0.84%0.050.070.050.020.040.020.030.010.040.03
YoY Growth---38.55%51.69%101.08%-42.62%154.48%-52.90%205.51%-74.35%63.15%-34.04%
Dividend Yield--0.25%0.47%0.26%0.16%0.28%0.09%0.15%0.04%0.13%0.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)152.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)45.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)106.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)30.4319.0211.41
Cash Retained (M)106.26106.26106.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-30.43-19.02-11.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)75.8387.2494.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)431.06431.06431.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.200.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.200.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.310.33
WACC / Discount Rate9.38%9.38%9.38%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7.67$11.41$18.65
Upside / Downside-56.24%-34.92%6.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)152.15162.03172.57183.78195.73208.45214.71
Payout Ratio30.16%42.13%54.10%66.06%78.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)45.8968.2693.35121.42152.73187.61198.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.38%9.38%9.38%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)61.8262.4162.99
Year 2 PV (M)76.5778.0379.50
Year 3 PV (M)90.1992.7895.42
Year 4 PV (M)102.75106.70110.76
Year 5 PV (M)114.30119.82125.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,896.091,987.672,082.75
Equity Value (M)2,341.712,447.402,556.98
Shares Outstanding (M)431.06431.06431.06
Fair Value$5.43$5.68$5.93
Upside / Downside-69.03%-67.63%-66.18%

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