Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Citra Nusantara Gemilang Tbk. (CGAS.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.62 - $32.93$26.92
Multi-Stage$46.75 - $51.37$49.02
Blended Fair Value$37.97
Current Price$91.00
Upside-58.28%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%1.253.390.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---63.10%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.49%3.53%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,331.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,000.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,331.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)866.34541.47324.88
Cash Retained (M)1,331.721,331.721,331.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-866.34-541.47-324.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)465.38790.261,006.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,771.461,771.461,771.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.450.57
LTM Dividend per Share1.691.691.69
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.450.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.962.142.26
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$21.62$26.92$32.93
Upside / Downside-76.24%-70.42%-63.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,331.724,288.404,245.524,203.064,161.034,119.424,243.01
Payout Ratio69.26%73.41%77.55%81.70%85.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,000.003,147.913,292.573,434.013,572.303,707.483,924.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)2,915.852,945.612,975.36
Year 2 PV (M)2,825.012,882.962,941.50
Year 3 PV (M)2,729.172,813.572,899.70
Year 4 PV (M)2,629.782,738.782,851.12
Year 5 PV (M)2,528.102,659.742,796.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)69,189.1272,791.9576,543.34
Equity Value (M)82,817.0486,832.6191,007.83
Shares Outstanding (M)1,771.461,771.461,771.46
Fair Value$46.75$49.02$51.37
Upside / Downside-48.63%-46.13%-43.54%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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