Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Citra Nusantara Gemilang Tbk. (CGAS.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.65 - $35.00$28.39
Multi-Stage$52.25 - $57.46$54.80
Blended Fair Value$41.60
Current Price$91.00
Upside-54.29%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%1.253.390.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---63.10%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.49%3.53%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,331.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,000.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,331.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)866.34541.47324.88
Cash Retained (M)1,331.721,331.721,331.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-866.34-541.47-324.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)465.38790.261,006.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,771.461,771.461,771.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.450.57
LTM Dividend per Share1.691.691.69
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.450.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.962.142.26
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$22.65$28.39$35.00
Upside / Downside-75.10%-68.81%-61.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,331.724,288.404,245.524,203.064,161.034,119.424,243.01
Payout Ratio69.26%73.41%77.55%81.70%85.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,000.003,147.913,292.573,434.013,572.303,707.483,924.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)2,926.972,956.832,986.70
Year 2 PV (M)2,846.592,904.982,963.96
Year 3 PV (M)2,760.502,845.872,932.98
Year 4 PV (M)2,670.112,780.772,894.84
Year 5 PV (M)2,576.652,710.822,850.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)78,782.9582,885.3687,156.91
Equity Value (M)92,563.7697,084.64101,785.93
Shares Outstanding (M)1,771.461,771.461,771.46
Fair Value$52.25$54.80$57.46
Upside / Downside-42.58%-39.78%-36.86%

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