Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $4,318.04 - $21,219.01 | $9,159.90 |
| Multi-Stage | $2,345.37 - $2,564.85 | $2,453.10 |
| Blended Fair Value | $5,806.50 | |
| Current Price | $4,822.50 | |
| Upside | 20.40% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 28.74% | 23.44% | 29.47 | 26.17 | 19.10 | 12.73 | 6.86 | 8.33 | 5.65 | 5.12 | 3.08 | 6.66 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 12.65% | 37.01% | 50.00% | 85.71% | -17.73% | 47.55% | 10.21% | 66.62% | -53.82% | 85.59% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.49% | 0.58% | 0.76% | 0.75% | 0.47% | 2.62% | 1.83% | 1.26% | 0.90% | 1.91% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 16,651.56 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 5,434.02 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 11,217.54 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 3,330.31 | 2,081.45 | 1,248.87 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 11,217.54 | 11,217.54 | 11,217.54 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -3,330.31 | -2,081.45 | -1,248.87 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 7,887.23 | 9,136.10 | 9,968.67 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 156.07 | 156.07 | 156.07 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 50.54 | 58.54 | 63.87 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 34.82 | 34.82 | 34.82 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 50.54 | 58.54 | 63.87 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 85.36 | 93.36 | 98.69 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.59% | 7.59% | 7.59% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $4,318.04 | $9,159.90 | $21,219.01 |
| Upside / Downside | -10.46% | 89.94% | 340.00% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 16,651.56 | 17,733.91 | 18,886.62 | 20,114.25 | 21,421.67 | 22,814.08 | 23,498.50 |
| Payout Ratio | 32.63% | 44.11% | 55.58% | 67.05% | 78.53% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 5,434.02 | 7,821.89 | 10,497.22 | 13,487.30 | 16,821.74 | 20,532.67 | 21,736.11 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.59% | 7.59% | 7.59% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 7,202.13 | 7,270.40 | 7,338.66 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 8,899.65 | 9,069.16 | 9,240.28 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 10,528.66 | 10,830.90 | 11,138.87 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 12,091.16 | 12,556.16 | 13,034.43 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 13,589.14 | 14,245.50 | 14,926.98 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 313,722.66 | 328,875.58 | 344,608.44 |
| Equity Value (M) | 366,033.40 | 382,847.69 | 400,287.66 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 156.07 | 156.07 | 156.07 |
| Fair Value | $2,345.37 | $2,453.10 | $2,564.85 |
| Upside / Downside | -51.37% | -49.13% | -46.81% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAH | Sonic Automotive, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.31 | 35.28% |
| AIG-PA | American International Group, Inc. | 2.12% | $1.69 | 30.01% |
| LANC | Lancaster Colony Corporation | 2.11% | $3.82 | 61.80% |
| TDAC | Translational Development Acquisition Corp. | 2.10% | $0.22 | 79.86% |
| FAST | Fastenal Company | 2.09% | $0.85 | 79.50% |
| FDUS | Fidus Investment Corporation | 2.09% | $0.41 | 17.86% |
| IBOC | International Bancshares Corporation | 2.09% | $1.40 | 20.70% |
| SMRSX | ALPS/Smith Short Duration Bond Investor | 2.09% | $0.22 | 98.81% |
| SSSS | SuRo Capital Corp. | 2.09% | $0.20 | 8.46% |
| MLR | Miller Industries, Inc. | 2.08% | $0.78 | 30.00% |
| OACC | Oaktree Acquisition Corp. III Life Sciences | 2.08% | $0.22 | 61.74% |
| FCCO | First Community Corporation | 2.07% | $0.60 | 25.08% |
| GNTX | Gentex Corporation | 2.07% | $0.49 | 28.42% |
| OACCU | Oaktree Acquisition Corp. III Life Sciences Unit | 2.07% | $0.22 | 61.74% |
| DLB | Dolby Laboratories, Inc. | 2.06% | $1.31 | 49.64% |
| APOG | Apogee Enterprises, Inc. | 2.05% | $0.77 | 37.24% |
| CAKE | The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | 2.05% | $1.08 | 32.74% |
| EWBC | East West Bancorp, Inc. | 2.05% | $2.36 | 25.97% |
| ALF | Centurion Acquisition Corp. | 2.04% | $0.22 | 51.38% |
| ATO | Atmos Energy Corporation | 2.04% | $3.45 | 46.19% |
| OVLY | Oak Valley Bancorp | 2.04% | $0.61 | 29.73% |
| 0HYE.L | Cincinnati Financial Corporation | 2.03% | $3.28 | 24.36% |
| AOS | A. O. Smith Corporation | 2.03% | $1.39 | 36.68% |
| ACT | Enact Holdings, Inc. | 2.02% | $0.80 | 18.03% |
| ARKO | Arko Corp. | 2.02% | $0.09 | 55.86% |
| KFY | Korn Ferry | 2.02% | $1.34 | 26.97% |
| 0H68.L | Aflac Incorporated | 2.01% | $2.20 | 28.14% |
| LEN | Lennar Corporation | 2.01% | $2.10 | 25.46% |
| AVY | Avery Dennison Corporation | 2.00% | $3.66 | 41.17% |
| RHLD | Resolute Holdings Management, Inc. | 2.00% | $3.74 | 22.61% |
| ALFUU | Centurion Acquisition Corp. Unit | 1.99% | $0.22 | 51.38% |
| GNTY | Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. | 1.99% | $0.97 | 30.69% |
| NC | NACCO Industries, Inc. | 1.99% | $0.95 | 24.54% |
| QCOM | QUALCOMM Incorporated | 1.99% | $3.44 | 68.67% |
| THG | The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. | 1.98% | $3.55 | 20.46% |
| CNMD | CONMED Corporation | 1.97% | $0.80 | 38.60% |
| FBIN | Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc. | 1.97% | $1.00 | 36.69% |
| FEIM | Frequency Electronics, Inc. | 1.97% | $1.00 | 46.25% |
| RPM | RPM International Inc. | 1.97% | $2.04 | 37.93% |
| BNJ | Brookfield Finance Inc. 4.50% P | 1.96% | $0.30 | 70.51% |
| MTG | MGIC Investment Corporation | 1.96% | $0.57 | 17.51% |
| CCS | Century Communities, Inc. | 1.95% | $1.15 | 16.06% |
| 0K6F.L | NetApp, Inc. | 1.94% | $2.07 | 35.51% |
| BLK | BlackRock, Inc. | 1.94% | $21.00 | 53.94% |
| FNB-PE | F.N.B. Corporation | 1.94% | $0.48 | 34.55% |
| 0L4F.L | Sealed Air Corporation | 1.93% | $0.80 | 30.13% |
| AEO | American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. | 1.93% | $0.51 | 42.14% |
| SLGN | Silgan Holdings Inc. | 1.93% | $0.80 | 26.98% |
| FSFG | First Savings Financial Group, Inc. | 1.92% | $0.61 | 23.93% |
| GEN | Gen Digital Inc. | 1.92% | $0.50 | 54.91% |