Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $210.94 - $287.20 | $249.74 |
| Multi-Stage | $324.21 - $356.60 | $340.09 |
| Blended Fair Value | $294.91 | |
| Current Price | $460.00 | |
| Upside | -35.89% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -30.14% | -10.66% | 2.70 | 5.42 | 33.32 | 13.94 | 10.69 | 16.24 | 12.24 | 8.50 | 8.25 | 9.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -50.18% | -83.72% | 138.95% | 30.37% | -34.15% | 32.65% | 44.12% | 3.00% | -8.31% | 7.77% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.71% | 1.42% | 5.29% | 2.76% | 6.50% | 8.90% | 7.65% | 4.25% | 2.89% | 3.68% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 124,396.79 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 17,997.60 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 106,399.19 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 24,879.36 | 15,549.60 | 9,329.76 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 106,399.19 | 106,399.19 | 106,399.19 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -24,879.36 | -15,549.60 | -9,329.76 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 81,519.84 | 90,849.59 | 97,069.43 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 3,000.00 | 3,000.00 | 3,000.00 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 27.17 | 30.28 | 32.36 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 27.17 | 30.28 | 32.36 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 33.17 | 36.28 | 38.36 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 10.66% | 10.66% | 10.66% |
| Growth Rate | -4.38% | -3.38% | -2.38% |
| Fair Value | $210.94 | $249.74 | $287.20 |
| Upside / Downside | -54.14% | -45.71% | -37.56% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 124,396.79 | 120,194.86 | 116,134.86 | 112,212.01 | 108,421.66 | 104,759.34 | 107,902.12 |
| Payout Ratio | 14.47% | 29.57% | 44.68% | 59.79% | 74.89% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 17,997.60 | 35,546.81 | 51,889.91 | 67,088.37 | 81,200.86 | 94,283.41 | 99,809.46 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 10.66% | 10.66% | 10.66% |
| Growth Rate | -4.38% | -3.38% | -2.38% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 31,790.23 | 32,122.69 | 32,455.15 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 41,502.01 | 42,374.59 | 43,256.25 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 47,987.33 | 49,508.66 | 51,061.80 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 51,943.72 | 54,150.92 | 56,427.72 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 53,938.74 | 56,818.77 | 59,820.51 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 745,481.65 | 785,286.11 | 826,772.98 |
| Equity Value (M) | 972,643.69 | 1,020,261.74 | 1,069,794.42 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 3,000.00 | 3,000.00 | 3,000.00 |
| Fair Value | $324.21 | $340.09 | $356.60 |
| Upside / Downside | -29.52% | -26.07% | -22.48% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAH | Sonic Automotive, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.31 | 35.28% |
| AIG-PA | American International Group, Inc. | 2.12% | $1.69 | 30.01% |
| LANC | Lancaster Colony Corporation | 2.11% | $3.82 | 61.80% |
| TDAC | Translational Development Acquisition Corp. | 2.10% | $0.22 | 79.86% |
| FAST | Fastenal Company | 2.09% | $0.85 | 79.50% |
| FDUS | Fidus Investment Corporation | 2.09% | $0.41 | 17.86% |
| IBOC | International Bancshares Corporation | 2.09% | $1.40 | 20.70% |
| SMRSX | ALPS/Smith Short Duration Bond Investor | 2.09% | $0.22 | 98.81% |
| SSSS | SuRo Capital Corp. | 2.09% | $0.20 | 8.46% |
| MLR | Miller Industries, Inc. | 2.08% | $0.78 | 30.00% |
| OACC | Oaktree Acquisition Corp. III Life Sciences | 2.08% | $0.22 | 61.74% |
| FCCO | First Community Corporation | 2.07% | $0.60 | 25.08% |
| GNTX | Gentex Corporation | 2.07% | $0.49 | 28.42% |
| OACCU | Oaktree Acquisition Corp. III Life Sciences Unit | 2.07% | $0.22 | 61.74% |
| DLB | Dolby Laboratories, Inc. | 2.06% | $1.31 | 49.64% |
| APOG | Apogee Enterprises, Inc. | 2.05% | $0.77 | 37.24% |
| CAKE | The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | 2.05% | $1.08 | 32.74% |
| EWBC | East West Bancorp, Inc. | 2.05% | $2.36 | 25.97% |
| ALF | Centurion Acquisition Corp. | 2.04% | $0.22 | 51.38% |
| ATO | Atmos Energy Corporation | 2.04% | $3.45 | 46.19% |
| OVLY | Oak Valley Bancorp | 2.04% | $0.61 | 29.73% |
| 0HYE.L | Cincinnati Financial Corporation | 2.03% | $3.28 | 24.36% |
| AOS | A. O. Smith Corporation | 2.03% | $1.39 | 36.68% |
| ACT | Enact Holdings, Inc. | 2.02% | $0.80 | 18.03% |
| ARKO | Arko Corp. | 2.02% | $0.09 | 55.86% |
| KFY | Korn Ferry | 2.02% | $1.34 | 26.97% |
| 0H68.L | Aflac Incorporated | 2.01% | $2.20 | 28.14% |
| LEN | Lennar Corporation | 2.01% | $2.10 | 25.46% |
| AVY | Avery Dennison Corporation | 2.00% | $3.66 | 41.17% |
| RHLD | Resolute Holdings Management, Inc. | 2.00% | $3.74 | 22.61% |
| ALFUU | Centurion Acquisition Corp. Unit | 1.99% | $0.22 | 51.38% |
| GNTY | Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. | 1.99% | $0.97 | 30.69% |
| NC | NACCO Industries, Inc. | 1.99% | $0.95 | 24.54% |
| QCOM | QUALCOMM Incorporated | 1.99% | $3.44 | 68.67% |
| THG | The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. | 1.98% | $3.55 | 20.46% |
| CNMD | CONMED Corporation | 1.97% | $0.80 | 38.60% |
| FBIN | Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc. | 1.97% | $1.00 | 36.69% |
| FEIM | Frequency Electronics, Inc. | 1.97% | $1.00 | 46.25% |
| RPM | RPM International Inc. | 1.97% | $2.04 | 37.93% |
| BNJ | Brookfield Finance Inc. 4.50% P | 1.96% | $0.30 | 70.51% |
| MTG | MGIC Investment Corporation | 1.96% | $0.57 | 17.51% |
| CCS | Century Communities, Inc. | 1.95% | $1.15 | 16.06% |
| 0K6F.L | NetApp, Inc. | 1.94% | $2.07 | 35.51% |
| BLK | BlackRock, Inc. | 1.94% | $21.00 | 53.94% |
| FNB-PE | F.N.B. Corporation | 1.94% | $0.48 | 34.55% |
| 0L4F.L | Sealed Air Corporation | 1.93% | $0.80 | 30.13% |
| AEO | American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. | 1.93% | $0.51 | 42.14% |
| SLGN | Silgan Holdings Inc. | 1.93% | $0.80 | 26.98% |
| FSFG | First Savings Financial Group, Inc. | 1.92% | $0.61 | 23.93% |
| GEN | Gen Digital Inc. | 1.92% | $0.50 | 54.91% |