Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $1,896.00 - $3,885.02 | $2,658.51 |
| Multi-Stage | $2,147.85 - $2,352.43 | $2,248.23 |
| Blended Fair Value | $2,453.37 | |
| Current Price | $2,139.90 | |
| Upside | 14.65% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 2.45% | -2.69% | 44.13 | 48.26 | 45.43 | 20.04 | 13.84 | 39.09 | 40.85 | 40.39 | 48.51 | 54.28 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -8.56% | 6.23% | 126.73% | 44.77% | -64.59% | -4.29% | 1.14% | -16.75% | -10.63% | -6.36% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.10% | 2.97% | 2.90% | 1.81% | 0.97% | 5.36% | 2.35% | 1.71% | 1.84% | 2.86% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 28,368.15 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 12,108.55 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 16,259.60 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 5,673.63 | 3,546.02 | 2,127.61 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 16,259.60 | 16,259.60 | 16,259.60 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -5,673.63 | -3,546.02 | -2,127.61 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 10,585.97 | 12,713.58 | 14,131.99 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 261.44 | 261.44 | 261.44 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 40.49 | 48.63 | 54.05 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 46.31 | 46.31 | 46.31 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 40.49 | 48.63 | 54.05 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 86.81 | 94.94 | 100.37 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.56% | 7.56% | 7.56% |
| Growth Rate | 2.85% | 3.85% | 4.85% |
| Fair Value | $1,896.00 | $2,658.51 | $3,885.02 |
| Upside / Downside | -11.40% | 24.24% | 81.55% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 28,368.15 | 29,459.53 | 30,592.90 | 31,769.88 | 32,992.13 | 34,261.41 | 35,289.25 |
| Payout Ratio | 42.68% | 52.15% | 61.61% | 71.07% | 80.54% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 12,108.55 | 15,362.23 | 18,848.34 | 22,579.95 | 26,570.78 | 30,835.27 | 32,642.56 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.56% | 7.56% | 7.56% |
| Growth Rate | 2.85% | 3.85% | 4.85% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 14,145.48 | 14,283.02 | 14,420.55 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 15,980.85 | 16,293.13 | 16,608.43 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 17,628.40 | 18,147.63 | 18,676.95 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 19,101.07 | 19,854.87 | 20,630.76 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 20,411.01 | 21,422.79 | 22,474.31 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 474,268.54 | 497,778.24 | 522,211.14 |
| Equity Value (M) | 561,535.35 | 587,779.67 | 615,022.14 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 261.44 | 261.44 | 261.44 |
| Fair Value | $2,147.85 | $2,248.23 | $2,352.43 |
| Upside / Downside | 0.37% | 5.06% | 9.93% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAH | Sonic Automotive, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.31 | 35.28% |
| AIG-PA | American International Group, Inc. | 2.12% | $1.69 | 30.01% |
| LANC | Lancaster Colony Corporation | 2.11% | $3.82 | 61.80% |
| TDAC | Translational Development Acquisition Corp. | 2.10% | $0.22 | 79.86% |
| FAST | Fastenal Company | 2.09% | $0.85 | 79.50% |
| FDUS | Fidus Investment Corporation | 2.09% | $0.41 | 17.86% |
| IBOC | International Bancshares Corporation | 2.09% | $1.40 | 20.70% |
| SMRSX | ALPS/Smith Short Duration Bond Investor | 2.09% | $0.22 | 98.81% |
| SSSS | SuRo Capital Corp. | 2.09% | $0.20 | 8.46% |
| MLR | Miller Industries, Inc. | 2.08% | $0.78 | 30.00% |
| OACC | Oaktree Acquisition Corp. III Life Sciences | 2.08% | $0.22 | 61.74% |
| FCCO | First Community Corporation | 2.07% | $0.60 | 25.08% |
| GNTX | Gentex Corporation | 2.07% | $0.49 | 28.42% |
| OACCU | Oaktree Acquisition Corp. III Life Sciences Unit | 2.07% | $0.22 | 61.74% |
| DLB | Dolby Laboratories, Inc. | 2.06% | $1.31 | 49.64% |
| APOG | Apogee Enterprises, Inc. | 2.05% | $0.77 | 37.24% |
| CAKE | The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | 2.05% | $1.08 | 32.74% |
| EWBC | East West Bancorp, Inc. | 2.05% | $2.36 | 25.97% |
| ALF | Centurion Acquisition Corp. | 2.04% | $0.22 | 51.38% |
| ATO | Atmos Energy Corporation | 2.04% | $3.45 | 46.19% |
| OVLY | Oak Valley Bancorp | 2.04% | $0.61 | 29.73% |
| 0HYE.L | Cincinnati Financial Corporation | 2.03% | $3.28 | 24.36% |
| AOS | A. O. Smith Corporation | 2.03% | $1.39 | 36.68% |
| ACT | Enact Holdings, Inc. | 2.02% | $0.80 | 18.03% |
| ARKO | Arko Corp. | 2.02% | $0.09 | 55.86% |
| KFY | Korn Ferry | 2.02% | $1.34 | 26.97% |
| 0H68.L | Aflac Incorporated | 2.01% | $2.20 | 28.14% |
| LEN | Lennar Corporation | 2.01% | $2.10 | 25.46% |
| AVY | Avery Dennison Corporation | 2.00% | $3.66 | 41.17% |
| RHLD | Resolute Holdings Management, Inc. | 2.00% | $3.74 | 22.61% |
| ALFUU | Centurion Acquisition Corp. Unit | 1.99% | $0.22 | 51.38% |
| GNTY | Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. | 1.99% | $0.97 | 30.69% |
| NC | NACCO Industries, Inc. | 1.99% | $0.95 | 24.54% |
| QCOM | QUALCOMM Incorporated | 1.99% | $3.44 | 68.67% |
| THG | The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. | 1.98% | $3.55 | 20.46% |
| CNMD | CONMED Corporation | 1.97% | $0.80 | 38.60% |
| FBIN | Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc. | 1.97% | $1.00 | 36.69% |
| FEIM | Frequency Electronics, Inc. | 1.97% | $1.00 | 46.25% |
| RPM | RPM International Inc. | 1.97% | $2.04 | 37.93% |
| BNJ | Brookfield Finance Inc. 4.50% P | 1.96% | $0.30 | 70.51% |
| MTG | MGIC Investment Corporation | 1.96% | $0.57 | 17.51% |
| CCS | Century Communities, Inc. | 1.95% | $1.15 | 16.06% |
| 0K6F.L | NetApp, Inc. | 1.94% | $2.07 | 35.51% |
| BLK | BlackRock, Inc. | 1.94% | $21.00 | 53.94% |
| FNB-PE | F.N.B. Corporation | 1.94% | $0.48 | 34.55% |
| 0L4F.L | Sealed Air Corporation | 1.93% | $0.80 | 30.13% |
| AEO | American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. | 1.93% | $0.51 | 42.14% |
| SLGN | Silgan Holdings Inc. | 1.93% | $0.80 | 26.98% |
| FSFG | First Savings Financial Group, Inc. | 1.92% | $0.61 | 23.93% |
| GEN | Gen Digital Inc. | 1.92% | $0.50 | 54.91% |