Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $1,750.50 - $2,528.29 | $2,129.12 |
| Multi-Stage | $3,724.31 - $4,108.87 | $3,912.74 |
| Blended Fair Value | $3,020.93 | |
| Current Price | $3,484.00 | |
| Upside | -13.29% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 8.84% | 11.58% | 27.58 | 26.22 | 25.17 | 23.21 | 22.30 | 18.06 | 14.84 | 11.42 | 9.21 | 9.22 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 5.17% | 4.18% | 8.47% | 4.06% | 23.51% | 21.64% | 30.02% | 23.89% | -0.01% | -0.01% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.78% | 1.03% | 1.35% | 1.37% | 1.07% | 1.43% | 1.97% | 1.70% | 1.11% | 2.46% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 446,173.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 50,506.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 395,667.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 89,234.60 | 55,771.63 | 33,462.98 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 395,667.00 | 395,667.00 | 395,667.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -89,234.60 | -55,771.63 | -33,462.98 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 306,432.40 | 339,895.38 | 362,204.03 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,796.05 | 1,796.05 | 1,796.05 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 170.61 | 189.25 | 201.67 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 28.12 | 28.12 | 28.12 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 170.61 | 189.25 | 201.67 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 198.73 | 217.37 | 229.79 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.29% | 7.29% | 7.29% |
| Growth Rate | -3.65% | -2.65% | -1.65% |
| Fair Value | $1,750.50 | $2,129.12 | $2,528.29 |
| Upside / Downside | -49.76% | -38.89% | -27.43% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 446,173.00 | 434,355.75 | 422,851.49 | 411,651.93 | 400,749.00 | 390,134.84 | 401,838.89 |
| Payout Ratio | 11.32% | 27.06% | 42.79% | 58.53% | 74.26% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 50,506.00 | 117,518.68 | 180,946.16 | 240,931.35 | 297,612.10 | 351,121.36 | 371,700.97 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.29% | 7.29% | 7.29% |
| Growth Rate | -3.65% | -2.65% | -1.65% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 108,408.29 | 109,533.43 | 110,658.56 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 153,978.67 | 157,191.45 | 160,437.39 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 189,129.86 | 195,079.94 | 201,153.52 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 215,512.74 | 224,599.94 | 233,971.53 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 234,549.88 | 246,976.75 | 259,924.84 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 5,787,481.59 | 6,094,112.65 | 6,413,604.84 |
| Equity Value (M) | 6,689,061.04 | 7,027,494.16 | 7,379,750.69 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,796.05 | 1,796.05 | 1,796.05 |
| Fair Value | $3,724.31 | $3,912.74 | $4,108.87 |
| Upside / Downside | 6.90% | 12.31% | 17.94% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAH | Sonic Automotive, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.31 | 35.28% |
| AIG-PA | American International Group, Inc. | 2.12% | $1.69 | 30.01% |
| LANC | Lancaster Colony Corporation | 2.11% | $3.82 | 61.80% |
| TDAC | Translational Development Acquisition Corp. | 2.10% | $0.22 | 79.86% |
| FAST | Fastenal Company | 2.09% | $0.85 | 79.50% |
| FDUS | Fidus Investment Corporation | 2.09% | $0.41 | 17.86% |
| IBOC | International Bancshares Corporation | 2.09% | $1.40 | 20.70% |
| SMRSX | ALPS/Smith Short Duration Bond Investor | 2.09% | $0.22 | 98.81% |
| SSSS | SuRo Capital Corp. | 2.09% | $0.20 | 8.46% |
| MLR | Miller Industries, Inc. | 2.08% | $0.78 | 30.00% |
| OACC | Oaktree Acquisition Corp. III Life Sciences | 2.08% | $0.22 | 61.74% |
| FCCO | First Community Corporation | 2.07% | $0.60 | 25.08% |
| GNTX | Gentex Corporation | 2.07% | $0.49 | 28.42% |
| OACCU | Oaktree Acquisition Corp. III Life Sciences Unit | 2.07% | $0.22 | 61.74% |
| DLB | Dolby Laboratories, Inc. | 2.06% | $1.31 | 49.64% |
| APOG | Apogee Enterprises, Inc. | 2.05% | $0.77 | 37.24% |
| CAKE | The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | 2.05% | $1.08 | 32.74% |
| EWBC | East West Bancorp, Inc. | 2.05% | $2.36 | 25.97% |
| ALF | Centurion Acquisition Corp. | 2.04% | $0.22 | 51.38% |
| ATO | Atmos Energy Corporation | 2.04% | $3.45 | 46.19% |
| OVLY | Oak Valley Bancorp | 2.04% | $0.61 | 29.73% |
| 0HYE.L | Cincinnati Financial Corporation | 2.03% | $3.28 | 24.36% |
| AOS | A. O. Smith Corporation | 2.03% | $1.39 | 36.68% |
| ACT | Enact Holdings, Inc. | 2.02% | $0.80 | 18.03% |
| ARKO | Arko Corp. | 2.02% | $0.09 | 55.86% |
| KFY | Korn Ferry | 2.02% | $1.34 | 26.97% |
| 0H68.L | Aflac Incorporated | 2.01% | $2.20 | 28.14% |
| LEN | Lennar Corporation | 2.01% | $2.10 | 25.46% |
| AVY | Avery Dennison Corporation | 2.00% | $3.66 | 41.17% |
| RHLD | Resolute Holdings Management, Inc. | 2.00% | $3.74 | 22.61% |
| ALFUU | Centurion Acquisition Corp. Unit | 1.99% | $0.22 | 51.38% |
| GNTY | Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. | 1.99% | $0.97 | 30.69% |
| NC | NACCO Industries, Inc. | 1.99% | $0.95 | 24.54% |
| QCOM | QUALCOMM Incorporated | 1.99% | $3.44 | 68.67% |
| THG | The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. | 1.98% | $3.55 | 20.46% |
| CNMD | CONMED Corporation | 1.97% | $0.80 | 38.60% |
| FBIN | Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc. | 1.97% | $1.00 | 36.69% |
| FEIM | Frequency Electronics, Inc. | 1.97% | $1.00 | 46.25% |
| RPM | RPM International Inc. | 1.97% | $2.04 | 37.93% |
| BNJ | Brookfield Finance Inc. 4.50% P | 1.96% | $0.30 | 70.51% |
| MTG | MGIC Investment Corporation | 1.96% | $0.57 | 17.51% |
| CCS | Century Communities, Inc. | 1.95% | $1.15 | 16.06% |
| 0K6F.L | NetApp, Inc. | 1.94% | $2.07 | 35.51% |
| BLK | BlackRock, Inc. | 1.94% | $21.00 | 53.94% |
| FNB-PE | F.N.B. Corporation | 1.94% | $0.48 | 34.55% |
| 0L4F.L | Sealed Air Corporation | 1.93% | $0.80 | 30.13% |
| AEO | American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. | 1.93% | $0.51 | 42.14% |
| SLGN | Silgan Holdings Inc. | 1.93% | $0.80 | 26.98% |
| FSFG | First Savings Financial Group, Inc. | 1.92% | $0.61 | 23.93% |
| GEN | Gen Digital Inc. | 1.92% | $0.50 | 54.91% |