Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $1,201.67 - $1,900.93 | $1,521.01 |
| Multi-Stage | $2,443.84 - $2,685.50 | $2,562.33 |
| Blended Fair Value | $2,041.67 | |
| Current Price | $2,165.00 | |
| Upside | -5.70% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -0.76% | 4.86% | 69.14 | 76.48 | 85.49 | 80.16 | 71.44 | 71.83 | 64.56 | 58.77 | 53.09 | 50.24 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -9.59% | -10.54% | 6.65% | 12.21% | -0.54% | 11.26% | 9.84% | 10.71% | 5.66% | 16.74% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 3.51% | 3.40% | 3.74% | 4.75% | 3.39% | 3.33% | 2.99% | 2.53% | 2.58% | 3.45% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 3,698.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 2,192.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,506.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 739.60 | 462.25 | 277.35 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,506.00 | 1,506.00 | 1,506.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -739.60 | -462.25 | -277.35 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 766.40 | 1,043.75 | 1,228.65 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 30.95 | 30.95 | 30.95 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 24.76 | 33.72 | 39.70 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 70.83 | 70.83 | 70.83 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 24.76 | 33.72 | 39.70 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 95.59 | 104.55 | 110.52 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.74% | 6.74% | 6.74% |
| Growth Rate | -1.13% | -0.13% | 0.87% |
| Fair Value | $1,201.67 | $1,521.01 | $1,900.93 |
| Upside / Downside | -44.50% | -29.75% | -12.20% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 3,698.00 | 3,693.30 | 3,688.60 | 3,683.92 | 3,679.23 | 3,674.56 | 3,784.79 |
| Payout Ratio | 59.28% | 65.42% | 71.57% | 77.71% | 83.86% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 2,192.00 | 2,416.16 | 2,639.76 | 2,862.78 | 3,085.22 | 3,307.10 | 3,500.93 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.74% | 6.74% | 6.74% |
| Growth Rate | -1.13% | -0.13% | 0.87% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 2,240.98 | 2,263.64 | 2,286.31 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 2,270.84 | 2,317.01 | 2,363.64 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 2,284.13 | 2,354.14 | 2,425.56 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 2,283.13 | 2,376.91 | 2,473.55 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 2,269.88 | 2,387.02 | 2,508.94 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 64,286.61 | 67,604.01 | 71,056.97 |
| Equity Value (M) | 75,635.58 | 79,302.73 | 83,114.97 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 30.95 | 30.95 | 30.95 |
| Fair Value | $2,443.84 | $2,562.33 | $2,685.50 |
| Upside / Downside | 12.88% | 18.35% | 24.04% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAH | Sonic Automotive, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.31 | 35.28% |
| AIG-PA | American International Group, Inc. | 2.12% | $1.69 | 30.01% |
| LANC | Lancaster Colony Corporation | 2.11% | $3.82 | 61.80% |
| TDAC | Translational Development Acquisition Corp. | 2.10% | $0.22 | 79.86% |
| FAST | Fastenal Company | 2.09% | $0.85 | 79.50% |
| FDUS | Fidus Investment Corporation | 2.09% | $0.41 | 17.86% |
| IBOC | International Bancshares Corporation | 2.09% | $1.40 | 20.70% |
| SMRSX | ALPS/Smith Short Duration Bond Investor | 2.09% | $0.22 | 98.81% |
| SSSS | SuRo Capital Corp. | 2.09% | $0.20 | 8.46% |
| MLR | Miller Industries, Inc. | 2.08% | $0.78 | 30.00% |
| OACC | Oaktree Acquisition Corp. III Life Sciences | 2.08% | $0.22 | 61.74% |
| FCCO | First Community Corporation | 2.07% | $0.60 | 25.08% |
| GNTX | Gentex Corporation | 2.07% | $0.49 | 28.42% |
| OACCU | Oaktree Acquisition Corp. III Life Sciences Unit | 2.07% | $0.22 | 61.74% |
| DLB | Dolby Laboratories, Inc. | 2.06% | $1.31 | 49.64% |
| APOG | Apogee Enterprises, Inc. | 2.05% | $0.77 | 37.24% |
| CAKE | The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | 2.05% | $1.08 | 32.74% |
| EWBC | East West Bancorp, Inc. | 2.05% | $2.36 | 25.97% |
| ALF | Centurion Acquisition Corp. | 2.04% | $0.22 | 51.38% |
| ATO | Atmos Energy Corporation | 2.04% | $3.45 | 46.19% |
| OVLY | Oak Valley Bancorp | 2.04% | $0.61 | 29.73% |
| 0HYE.L | Cincinnati Financial Corporation | 2.03% | $3.28 | 24.36% |
| AOS | A. O. Smith Corporation | 2.03% | $1.39 | 36.68% |
| ACT | Enact Holdings, Inc. | 2.02% | $0.80 | 18.03% |
| ARKO | Arko Corp. | 2.02% | $0.09 | 55.86% |
| KFY | Korn Ferry | 2.02% | $1.34 | 26.97% |
| 0H68.L | Aflac Incorporated | 2.01% | $2.20 | 28.14% |
| LEN | Lennar Corporation | 2.01% | $2.10 | 25.46% |
| AVY | Avery Dennison Corporation | 2.00% | $3.66 | 41.17% |
| RHLD | Resolute Holdings Management, Inc. | 2.00% | $3.74 | 22.61% |
| ALFUU | Centurion Acquisition Corp. Unit | 1.99% | $0.22 | 51.38% |
| GNTY | Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. | 1.99% | $0.97 | 30.69% |
| NC | NACCO Industries, Inc. | 1.99% | $0.95 | 24.54% |
| QCOM | QUALCOMM Incorporated | 1.99% | $3.44 | 68.67% |
| THG | The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. | 1.98% | $3.55 | 20.46% |
| CNMD | CONMED Corporation | 1.97% | $0.80 | 38.60% |
| FBIN | Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc. | 1.97% | $1.00 | 36.69% |
| FEIM | Frequency Electronics, Inc. | 1.97% | $1.00 | 46.25% |
| RPM | RPM International Inc. | 1.97% | $2.04 | 37.93% |
| BNJ | Brookfield Finance Inc. 4.50% P | 1.96% | $0.30 | 70.51% |
| MTG | MGIC Investment Corporation | 1.96% | $0.57 | 17.51% |
| CCS | Century Communities, Inc. | 1.95% | $1.15 | 16.06% |
| 0K6F.L | NetApp, Inc. | 1.94% | $2.07 | 35.51% |
| BLK | BlackRock, Inc. | 1.94% | $21.00 | 53.94% |
| FNB-PE | F.N.B. Corporation | 1.94% | $0.48 | 34.55% |
| 0L4F.L | Sealed Air Corporation | 1.93% | $0.80 | 30.13% |
| AEO | American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. | 1.93% | $0.51 | 42.14% |
| SLGN | Silgan Holdings Inc. | 1.93% | $0.80 | 26.98% |
| FSFG | First Savings Financial Group, Inc. | 1.92% | $0.61 | 23.93% |
| GEN | Gen Digital Inc. | 1.92% | $0.50 | 54.91% |