Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $17,438.86 - $25,533.77 | $21,340.51 |
| Multi-Stage | $31,376.06 - $34,422.40 | $32,869.85 |
| Blended Fair Value | $27,105.18 | |
| Current Price | $122,300.00 | |
| Upside | -77.84% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -4.97% | 3.32% | 914.35 | 681.60 | 987.34 | 794.45 | 992.88 | 1,179.59 | 1,279.48 | 1,579.18 | 1,369.97 | 907.92 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 34.15% | -30.97% | 24.28% | -19.99% | -15.83% | -7.81% | -18.98% | 15.27% | 50.89% | 37.65% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.90% | 0.53% | 0.72% | 0.50% | 0.38% | 0.70% | 0.66% | 0.50% | 0.49% | 0.23% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 158,065.02 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 92,271.01 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 65,794.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 31,613.00 | 19,758.13 | 11,854.88 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 65,794.00 | 65,794.00 | 65,794.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -31,613.00 | -19,758.13 | -11,854.88 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 34,181.00 | 46,035.88 | 53,939.13 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 69.02 | 69.02 | 69.02 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 495.22 | 666.98 | 781.48 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1,336.84 | 1,336.84 | 1,336.84 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 495.22 | 666.98 | 781.48 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1,832.07 | 2,003.82 | 2,118.33 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.33% | 8.33% | 8.33% |
| Growth Rate | -1.97% | -0.97% | 0.03% |
| Fair Value | $17,438.86 | $21,340.51 | $25,533.77 |
| Upside / Downside | -85.74% | -82.55% | -79.12% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 158,065.02 | 156,529.61 | 155,009.12 | 153,503.40 | 152,012.30 | 150,535.69 | 155,051.76 |
| Payout Ratio | 58.38% | 64.70% | 71.03% | 77.35% | 83.68% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 92,271.01 | 101,275.10 | 110,095.55 | 118,735.09 | 127,196.40 | 135,482.12 | 143,422.88 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.33% | 8.33% | 8.33% |
| Growth Rate | -1.97% | -0.97% | 0.03% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 92,545.95 | 93,490.02 | 94,434.09 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 91,934.65 | 93,819.89 | 95,724.26 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 90,603.15 | 93,404.29 | 96,262.57 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 88,693.90 | 92,368.76 | 96,156.64 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 86,328.79 | 90,822.79 | 95,502.02 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 1,715,516.40 | 1,804,820.70 | 1,897,805.99 |
| Equity Value (M) | 2,165,622.84 | 2,268,726.44 | 2,375,885.59 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 69.02 | 69.02 | 69.02 |
| Fair Value | $31,376.06 | $32,869.85 | $34,422.40 |
| Upside / Downside | -74.35% | -73.12% | -71.85% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAH | Sonic Automotive, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.31 | 35.28% |
| AIG-PA | American International Group, Inc. | 2.12% | $1.69 | 30.01% |
| LANC | Lancaster Colony Corporation | 2.11% | $3.82 | 61.80% |
| TDAC | Translational Development Acquisition Corp. | 2.10% | $0.22 | 79.86% |
| FAST | Fastenal Company | 2.09% | $0.85 | 79.50% |
| FDUS | Fidus Investment Corporation | 2.09% | $0.41 | 17.86% |
| IBOC | International Bancshares Corporation | 2.09% | $1.40 | 20.70% |
| SMRSX | ALPS/Smith Short Duration Bond Investor | 2.09% | $0.22 | 98.81% |
| SSSS | SuRo Capital Corp. | 2.09% | $0.20 | 8.46% |
| MLR | Miller Industries, Inc. | 2.08% | $0.78 | 30.00% |
| OACC | Oaktree Acquisition Corp. III Life Sciences | 2.08% | $0.22 | 61.74% |
| FCCO | First Community Corporation | 2.07% | $0.60 | 25.08% |
| GNTX | Gentex Corporation | 2.07% | $0.49 | 28.42% |
| OACCU | Oaktree Acquisition Corp. III Life Sciences Unit | 2.07% | $0.22 | 61.74% |
| DLB | Dolby Laboratories, Inc. | 2.06% | $1.31 | 49.64% |
| APOG | Apogee Enterprises, Inc. | 2.05% | $0.77 | 37.24% |
| CAKE | The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | 2.05% | $1.08 | 32.74% |
| EWBC | East West Bancorp, Inc. | 2.05% | $2.36 | 25.97% |
| ALF | Centurion Acquisition Corp. | 2.04% | $0.22 | 51.38% |
| ATO | Atmos Energy Corporation | 2.04% | $3.45 | 46.19% |
| OVLY | Oak Valley Bancorp | 2.04% | $0.61 | 29.73% |
| 0HYE.L | Cincinnati Financial Corporation | 2.03% | $3.28 | 24.36% |
| AOS | A. O. Smith Corporation | 2.03% | $1.39 | 36.68% |
| ACT | Enact Holdings, Inc. | 2.02% | $0.80 | 18.03% |
| ARKO | Arko Corp. | 2.02% | $0.09 | 55.86% |
| KFY | Korn Ferry | 2.02% | $1.34 | 26.97% |
| 0H68.L | Aflac Incorporated | 2.01% | $2.20 | 28.14% |
| LEN | Lennar Corporation | 2.01% | $2.10 | 25.46% |
| AVY | Avery Dennison Corporation | 2.00% | $3.66 | 41.17% |
| RHLD | Resolute Holdings Management, Inc. | 2.00% | $3.74 | 22.61% |
| ALFUU | Centurion Acquisition Corp. Unit | 1.99% | $0.22 | 51.38% |
| GNTY | Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. | 1.99% | $0.97 | 30.69% |
| NC | NACCO Industries, Inc. | 1.99% | $0.95 | 24.54% |
| QCOM | QUALCOMM Incorporated | 1.99% | $3.44 | 68.67% |
| THG | The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. | 1.98% | $3.55 | 20.46% |
| CNMD | CONMED Corporation | 1.97% | $0.80 | 38.60% |
| FBIN | Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc. | 1.97% | $1.00 | 36.69% |
| FEIM | Frequency Electronics, Inc. | 1.97% | $1.00 | 46.25% |
| RPM | RPM International Inc. | 1.97% | $2.04 | 37.93% |
| BNJ | Brookfield Finance Inc. 4.50% P | 1.96% | $0.30 | 70.51% |
| MTG | MGIC Investment Corporation | 1.96% | $0.57 | 17.51% |
| CCS | Century Communities, Inc. | 1.95% | $1.15 | 16.06% |
| 0K6F.L | NetApp, Inc. | 1.94% | $2.07 | 35.51% |
| BLK | BlackRock, Inc. | 1.94% | $21.00 | 53.94% |
| FNB-PE | F.N.B. Corporation | 1.94% | $0.48 | 34.55% |
| 0L4F.L | Sealed Air Corporation | 1.93% | $0.80 | 30.13% |
| AEO | American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. | 1.93% | $0.51 | 42.14% |
| SLGN | Silgan Holdings Inc. | 1.93% | $0.80 | 26.98% |
| FSFG | First Savings Financial Group, Inc. | 1.92% | $0.61 | 23.93% |
| GEN | Gen Digital Inc. | 1.92% | $0.50 | 54.91% |