Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $2,805.79 - $3,784.90 | $3,307.68 |
| Multi-Stage | $8,681.25 - $9,626.36 | $9,143.77 |
| Blended Fair Value | $6,225.73 | |
| Current Price | $13,710.00 | |
| Upside | -54.59% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -12.55% | -7.61% | 165.42 | 215.56 | 219.26 | 487.96 | 272.61 | 323.43 | 110.05 | 292.52 | 196.23 | 115.22 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -23.26% | -1.69% | -55.07% | 79.00% | -15.71% | 193.89% | -62.38% | 49.07% | 70.32% | -68.44% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.67% | 1.46% | 1.30% | 1.80% | 0.82% | 0.78% | 0.38% | 0.72% | 0.52% | 0.23% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 11,262.02 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 3,784.82 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 7,477.20 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 2,252.40 | 1,407.75 | 844.65 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 7,477.20 | 7,477.20 | 7,477.20 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -2,252.40 | -1,407.75 | -844.65 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 5,224.79 | 6,069.44 | 6,632.55 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 17.98 | 17.98 | 17.98 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 290.59 | 337.57 | 368.89 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 210.50 | 210.50 | 210.50 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 290.59 | 337.57 | 368.89 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 501.10 | 548.08 | 579.39 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.53% | 6.53% | 6.53% |
| Growth Rate | -9.61% | -8.61% | -7.61% |
| Fair Value | $2,805.79 | $3,307.68 | $3,784.90 |
| Upside / Downside | -79.53% | -75.87% | -72.39% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 11,262.02 | 10,292.33 | 9,406.13 | 8,596.24 | 7,856.08 | 7,179.65 | 7,395.04 |
| Payout Ratio | 33.61% | 44.89% | 56.16% | 67.44% | 78.72% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 3,784.82 | 4,619.77 | 5,282.88 | 5,797.54 | 6,184.42 | 6,461.69 | 6,840.41 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.53% | 6.53% | 6.53% |
| Growth Rate | -9.61% | -8.61% | -7.61% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 4,289.03 | 4,336.48 | 4,383.93 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 4,553.52 | 4,654.83 | 4,757.25 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 4,639.37 | 4,795.06 | 4,954.19 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 4,594.65 | 4,801.37 | 5,014.99 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 4,456.95 | 4,709.00 | 4,972.34 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 133,553.12 | 141,106.03 | 148,996.85 |
| Equity Value (M) | 156,086.63 | 164,402.77 | 173,079.56 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 17.98 | 17.98 | 17.98 |
| Fair Value | $8,681.25 | $9,143.77 | $9,626.36 |
| Upside / Downside | -36.68% | -33.31% | -29.79% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAH | Sonic Automotive, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.31 | 35.28% |
| AIG-PA | American International Group, Inc. | 2.12% | $1.69 | 30.01% |
| LANC | Lancaster Colony Corporation | 2.11% | $3.82 | 61.80% |
| TDAC | Translational Development Acquisition Corp. | 2.10% | $0.22 | 79.86% |
| FAST | Fastenal Company | 2.09% | $0.85 | 79.50% |
| FDUS | Fidus Investment Corporation | 2.09% | $0.41 | 17.86% |
| IBOC | International Bancshares Corporation | 2.09% | $1.40 | 20.70% |
| SMRSX | ALPS/Smith Short Duration Bond Investor | 2.09% | $0.22 | 98.81% |
| SSSS | SuRo Capital Corp. | 2.09% | $0.20 | 8.46% |
| MLR | Miller Industries, Inc. | 2.08% | $0.78 | 30.00% |
| OACC | Oaktree Acquisition Corp. III Life Sciences | 2.08% | $0.22 | 61.74% |
| FCCO | First Community Corporation | 2.07% | $0.60 | 25.08% |
| GNTX | Gentex Corporation | 2.07% | $0.49 | 28.42% |
| OACCU | Oaktree Acquisition Corp. III Life Sciences Unit | 2.07% | $0.22 | 61.74% |
| DLB | Dolby Laboratories, Inc. | 2.06% | $1.31 | 49.64% |
| APOG | Apogee Enterprises, Inc. | 2.05% | $0.77 | 37.24% |
| CAKE | The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | 2.05% | $1.08 | 32.74% |
| EWBC | East West Bancorp, Inc. | 2.05% | $2.36 | 25.97% |
| ALF | Centurion Acquisition Corp. | 2.04% | $0.22 | 51.38% |
| ATO | Atmos Energy Corporation | 2.04% | $3.45 | 46.19% |
| OVLY | Oak Valley Bancorp | 2.04% | $0.61 | 29.73% |
| 0HYE.L | Cincinnati Financial Corporation | 2.03% | $3.28 | 24.36% |
| AOS | A. O. Smith Corporation | 2.03% | $1.39 | 36.68% |
| ACT | Enact Holdings, Inc. | 2.02% | $0.80 | 18.03% |
| ARKO | Arko Corp. | 2.02% | $0.09 | 55.86% |
| KFY | Korn Ferry | 2.02% | $1.34 | 26.97% |
| 0H68.L | Aflac Incorporated | 2.01% | $2.20 | 28.14% |
| LEN | Lennar Corporation | 2.01% | $2.10 | 25.46% |
| AVY | Avery Dennison Corporation | 2.00% | $3.66 | 41.17% |
| RHLD | Resolute Holdings Management, Inc. | 2.00% | $3.74 | 22.61% |
| ALFUU | Centurion Acquisition Corp. Unit | 1.99% | $0.22 | 51.38% |
| GNTY | Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. | 1.99% | $0.97 | 30.69% |
| NC | NACCO Industries, Inc. | 1.99% | $0.95 | 24.54% |
| QCOM | QUALCOMM Incorporated | 1.99% | $3.44 | 68.67% |
| THG | The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. | 1.98% | $3.55 | 20.46% |
| CNMD | CONMED Corporation | 1.97% | $0.80 | 38.60% |
| FBIN | Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc. | 1.97% | $1.00 | 36.69% |
| FEIM | Frequency Electronics, Inc. | 1.97% | $1.00 | 46.25% |
| RPM | RPM International Inc. | 1.97% | $2.04 | 37.93% |
| BNJ | Brookfield Finance Inc. 4.50% P | 1.96% | $0.30 | 70.51% |
| MTG | MGIC Investment Corporation | 1.96% | $0.57 | 17.51% |
| CCS | Century Communities, Inc. | 1.95% | $1.15 | 16.06% |
| 0K6F.L | NetApp, Inc. | 1.94% | $2.07 | 35.51% |
| BLK | BlackRock, Inc. | 1.94% | $21.00 | 53.94% |
| FNB-PE | F.N.B. Corporation | 1.94% | $0.48 | 34.55% |
| 0L4F.L | Sealed Air Corporation | 1.93% | $0.80 | 30.13% |
| AEO | American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. | 1.93% | $0.51 | 42.14% |
| SLGN | Silgan Holdings Inc. | 1.93% | $0.80 | 26.98% |
| FSFG | First Savings Financial Group, Inc. | 1.92% | $0.61 | 23.93% |
| GEN | Gen Digital Inc. | 1.92% | $0.50 | 54.91% |