Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $9,152.07 - $40,859.82 | $21,399.25 |
| Multi-Stage | $4,932.04 - $5,382.98 | $5,153.43 |
| Blended Fair Value | $13,276.34 | |
| Current Price | $2,650.00 | |
| Upside | 400.99% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 12.14% | 10.37% | 167.73 | 240.38 | 402.07 | 173.83 | 113.33 | 94.57 | 65.02 | 28.50 | 80.85 | 107.80 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -30.22% | -40.21% | 131.30% | 53.38% | 19.84% | 45.44% | 128.14% | -64.75% | -25.00% | 72.41% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 6.48% | 6.21% | 6.84% | 2.17% | 2.83% | 3.21% | 2.24% | 0.78% | 1.60% | 1.63% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 190,589.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 162,118.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 28,471.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 38,117.80 | 23,823.63 | 14,294.18 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 28,471.00 | 28,471.00 | 28,471.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -38,117.80 | -23,823.63 | -14,294.18 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -9,646.80 | 4,647.38 | 14,176.83 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 927.64 | 927.64 | 927.64 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -10.40 | 5.01 | 15.28 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 174.76 | 174.76 | 174.76 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -10.40 | 5.01 | 15.28 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 164.36 | 179.77 | 190.05 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.39% | 7.39% | 7.39% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $9,152.07 | $21,399.25 | $40,859.82 |
| Upside / Downside | 245.36% | 707.52% | 1,441.88% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 190,589.00 | 202,977.29 | 216,170.81 | 230,221.91 | 245,186.34 | 261,123.45 | 268,957.15 |
| Payout Ratio | 85.06% | 86.05% | 87.04% | 88.02% | 89.01% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 162,118.00 | 174,660.45 | 188,148.46 | 202,651.98 | 218,246.03 | 235,011.10 | 248,785.36 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.39% | 7.39% | 7.39% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 161,107.07 | 162,634.15 | 164,161.23 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 160,081.34 | 163,130.44 | 166,208.31 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 159,041.67 | 163,607.18 | 168,259.24 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 157,988.85 | 164,064.65 | 170,314.04 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 156,923.68 | 164,503.15 | 172,372.71 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 3,780,037.43 | 3,962,614.66 | 4,152,179.54 |
| Equity Value (M) | 4,575,180.03 | 4,780,554.23 | 4,993,495.06 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 927.64 | 927.64 | 927.64 |
| Fair Value | $4,932.04 | $5,153.43 | $5,382.98 |
| Upside / Downside | 86.11% | 94.47% | 103.13% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAH | Sonic Automotive, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.31 | 35.28% |
| AIG-PA | American International Group, Inc. | 2.12% | $1.69 | 30.01% |
| LANC | Lancaster Colony Corporation | 2.11% | $3.82 | 61.80% |
| TDAC | Translational Development Acquisition Corp. | 2.10% | $0.22 | 79.86% |
| FAST | Fastenal Company | 2.09% | $0.85 | 79.50% |
| FDUS | Fidus Investment Corporation | 2.09% | $0.41 | 17.86% |
| IBOC | International Bancshares Corporation | 2.09% | $1.40 | 20.70% |
| SMRSX | ALPS/Smith Short Duration Bond Investor | 2.09% | $0.22 | 98.81% |
| SSSS | SuRo Capital Corp. | 2.09% | $0.20 | 8.46% |
| MLR | Miller Industries, Inc. | 2.08% | $0.78 | 30.00% |
| OACC | Oaktree Acquisition Corp. III Life Sciences | 2.08% | $0.22 | 61.74% |
| FCCO | First Community Corporation | 2.07% | $0.60 | 25.08% |
| GNTX | Gentex Corporation | 2.07% | $0.49 | 28.42% |
| OACCU | Oaktree Acquisition Corp. III Life Sciences Unit | 2.07% | $0.22 | 61.74% |
| DLB | Dolby Laboratories, Inc. | 2.06% | $1.31 | 49.64% |
| APOG | Apogee Enterprises, Inc. | 2.05% | $0.77 | 37.24% |
| CAKE | The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | 2.05% | $1.08 | 32.74% |
| EWBC | East West Bancorp, Inc. | 2.05% | $2.36 | 25.97% |
| ALF | Centurion Acquisition Corp. | 2.04% | $0.22 | 51.38% |
| ATO | Atmos Energy Corporation | 2.04% | $3.45 | 46.19% |
| OVLY | Oak Valley Bancorp | 2.04% | $0.61 | 29.73% |
| 0HYE.L | Cincinnati Financial Corporation | 2.03% | $3.28 | 24.36% |
| AOS | A. O. Smith Corporation | 2.03% | $1.39 | 36.68% |
| ACT | Enact Holdings, Inc. | 2.02% | $0.80 | 18.03% |
| ARKO | Arko Corp. | 2.02% | $0.09 | 55.86% |
| KFY | Korn Ferry | 2.02% | $1.34 | 26.97% |
| 0H68.L | Aflac Incorporated | 2.01% | $2.20 | 28.14% |
| LEN | Lennar Corporation | 2.01% | $2.10 | 25.46% |
| AVY | Avery Dennison Corporation | 2.00% | $3.66 | 41.17% |
| RHLD | Resolute Holdings Management, Inc. | 2.00% | $3.74 | 22.61% |
| ALFUU | Centurion Acquisition Corp. Unit | 1.99% | $0.22 | 51.38% |
| GNTY | Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. | 1.99% | $0.97 | 30.69% |
| NC | NACCO Industries, Inc. | 1.99% | $0.95 | 24.54% |
| QCOM | QUALCOMM Incorporated | 1.99% | $3.44 | 68.67% |
| THG | The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. | 1.98% | $3.55 | 20.46% |
| CNMD | CONMED Corporation | 1.97% | $0.80 | 38.60% |
| FBIN | Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc. | 1.97% | $1.00 | 36.69% |
| FEIM | Frequency Electronics, Inc. | 1.97% | $1.00 | 46.25% |
| RPM | RPM International Inc. | 1.97% | $2.04 | 37.93% |
| BNJ | Brookfield Finance Inc. 4.50% P | 1.96% | $0.30 | 70.51% |
| MTG | MGIC Investment Corporation | 1.96% | $0.57 | 17.51% |
| CCS | Century Communities, Inc. | 1.95% | $1.15 | 16.06% |
| 0K6F.L | NetApp, Inc. | 1.94% | $2.07 | 35.51% |
| BLK | BlackRock, Inc. | 1.94% | $21.00 | 53.94% |
| FNB-PE | F.N.B. Corporation | 1.94% | $0.48 | 34.55% |
| 0L4F.L | Sealed Air Corporation | 1.93% | $0.80 | 30.13% |
| AEO | American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. | 1.93% | $0.51 | 42.14% |
| SLGN | Silgan Holdings Inc. | 1.93% | $0.80 | 26.98% |
| FSFG | First Savings Financial Group, Inc. | 1.92% | $0.61 | 23.93% |
| GEN | Gen Digital Inc. | 1.92% | $0.50 | 54.91% |